Investment Lifecycle and Strategies
WHERE WE DIFFER
AT HAYDEN, WE AIM TO INVEST WITH A DECADE-LONG
INVESTMENT VIEW.
•
Over this time period, sales and earnings power growth drive ~90% of equity returns (i.e.
fundamental business performance).
•
It's not worth our time looking for "catalysts" to get multiple expansion, or understand why
other investors will pay a higher multiple for the company in the future.
WE GET A HIGHER RETURN ON TIME BY UNDERSTANDING THE
UNDERLYING RETURNS / UNIT ECONOMICS OF PROJECTS THE
COMPANIES ARE INVESTING IN, AND BUYING THESE BUSINESSES
AT A GOOD-TO-FAIR PRICE.
•
If we can understand the drivers of the high incremental ROICs, this is what will drive
higher earnings power, and therefore intrinsic value growth in the future.
Long-Term Sales & Earnings Power Drive Returns
From Morgan Stanley Research
Topline Growth the Long-Run Driver of Stock Performance
Sales Growth Is the Key Driver of Long-Term Stock Performance
Sources of Total Shareholder Return for Top-Quartile Performers
S&P 500 (1990 - 2009)
100%
90%
29%
80%
50%
70%
58%
13%
74%
Sales
60%
and
50%
Profit
40%
20%
46%
30%
20%
20%
19%
15%
15%
10%
5%
12%
11%
7%
6%
0%
1 Year
3 Years
5 Years
10 Years
Free cash flow
Multiple Margin
Revenue Growth
Source: BCG Analysis, Morgan Stanley Research
HAYDEN CAPITAL 12View entire presentation