Competing as a Strong and Independent Portuguese Bank
Macroeconomic environment
Macroeconomic environment
Annual GDP growth well above 6% is expected in 2022, supported by resilient private consumption, a strong
recovery in tourism and a rise in net exports. Unemployment remains low.
After 2.4% QoQ in the first quarter and 0.1% QoQ in
the 2Q22 (12% and 7.4% YoY), GDP increased
0.4% QoQ in the 3Q22, or 4.9% YoY).
Annual GDP growth is expected well above 6% in
2022 (vs. 3.1% in the Euro Area), supported by:
I.
Resilient private consumption growth, with
removal of Covid-19 constraints, release of
savings accumulated in the pandemic and
policy support to households;
II. Strong improvement in tourism activity and
higher exports growth;
III. Persistence of low unemployment rates.
(1) 3Q 2022 estimate; Sources: INE, Bank of Portugal, novobanco.
novobanco
GDP growth
(% QoQ and YoY) 1
14.6
QoQ
YOY
Daily indicator of economic activity, BoP
(% YoY and % change vs. 2019)
40
Latest data for the week
30
1-Year
ending in Oct 09
7.1
2.8
4.4
4.3
20
0.5
0.8
1.9
2.4
0.4
0.1 0.4
10
0
-2.6
-4.4
-10
1.2
-0.8
3-Year
-20
-30
-15.2
2020
2021
2022
Overnight stays in tourist
accommodation establishments (million)
jan/20 jun/20 nov/20 abr/21 set/21 fev/22 jul/22
Unemployment rate
(% labour force)
2019 2022
4.6
4.0
3.4
3.0
2.9
2.0
9.6 9.9
8.6
8.2
7.2 7.2
6.6 6.5
6.0 6.0
10
20062086420
18
16
14
12
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
2000 2003
2006
2009 2012
2015
2018 2021
6.0
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