Capital Markets & Funding Strategies
3.4%
2.0%
3.2%
2.1%
Forward-looking Information Variables used to estimate our Expected Credit Loss¹
Forward-Looking Information Variables
As at April 30, 2022
Canadian GDP YOY Growth
US GDP YOY Growth
Avg. Value over the
next 12 months
Base Case
Avg. Value over the
remaining forecast
period
Base Case
Avg. Value over the
next 12 months
Upside Case
Avg. Value over the
remaining forecast
period
Upside Case
Avg. Value over the
next 12 months
Avg. Value over the
remaining forecast
period
Downside Case
Downside Case
4.6%
2.7%
2.4%
1.7%
4.3%
3.1%
1.1%
0.2%
Canadian Unemployment Rate
5.4%
5.7%
4.9%
5.3%
6.4%
6.5%
US Unemployment Rate
3.6%
3.7%
3.1%
3.0%
5.0%
4.9%
Canadian Housing Price Index YoY Growth
7.2%
2.0%
15.1%
4.7%
(0.5)%
(1.4)%
S&P 500 Index YoY Growth Rate
1.9%
5.0%
5.9%
8.5%
(6.9)%
(8.5)%
15.0%
$93
15.1%
$76
14.5%
14.8%
15.4%
15.2%
$126
$124
$67
$54
Base Case
3.5%
2.4%
3.9%
2.5%
Canadian Household Debt Service Ratio
West Texas Intermediate Oil Price (US$)
Forward-Looking Information Variables
As at January 31, 2022
Canadian GDP YOY Growth
US GDP YOY Growth
Avg. Value over the
next 12 months
Avg. Value over the
remaining forecast
period
Base Case
Avg. Value over the
next 12 months
Avg. Value over the
remaining forecast
period
Upside Case
Avg. Value over the
next 12 months
Avg. Value over the
remaining forecast
period
Upside Case
Downside Case
Downside Case
4.8%
2.9%
2.5%
1.8%
5.0%
3.1%
2.1%
1.3%
Canadian Unemployment Rate
5.9%
5.9%
5.2%
5.5%
6.7%
6.6%
US Unemployment Rate
3.7%
3.8%
3.5%
3.3%
5.2%
4.7%
Canadian Housing Price Index YoY Growth
5.1%
2.6%
10.3%
4.7%
2.6%
(0.3)%
S&P 500 Index YoY Growth Rate
2.8%
4.6%
7.2%
6.9%
(4.1)%
(4.9)%
Canadian Household Debt Service Ratio
13.8%
14.5%
13.3%
14.3%
14.3%
14.8%
West Texas Intermediate Oil Price (US$)
$73
$66
$78
$81
$62
$54
CIBC
1 See page 68 of the Q2/22 Quarterly Report for further details.
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