Investor Presentaiton

Growth Scenarios for Tourism to Sri Lanka: November 2021 Introduction The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic is unprecedented and has almost brought the global travel and tourism industry to a halt. All parts of its value chain have been affected and consumer perceptions and travel patterns have shifted. The number of international tourist arrivals declined by 74 percent in 2020, compared with the previous year (Source: UNWTO Tourism Dashboard, 2021). A protracted recovery is anticipated and a consensus of tourism industry experts do not expect a return to pre-COVID arrival levels until 2024 or later. The low levels of vaccination in many countries, travel restrictions and protocols, vaccination hesitancy, emerging new variants of COVID-19, low traveller confidence and poor economic conditions could be the likely reasons contributing to the slow recovery (Source: UNCTAD, 2021). The growth scenarios for tourism to Sri Lanka are produced in this context. An increasing number of countries are in the process of reopening their borders for tourism when their own populations are vaccinated. Yet the vaccination rates in different regions remain asymmetrical. As of October 30, 54%, of the world population has received at least one dose of the COVID-19 vaccination (Source: Our World in Data). Currently in Sri Lanka, 560,345 confirmed cased have been recorded as of 26th November (Source: Health promotion Bureau, Sri Lanka). The future trend remains uncertain for Sri Lanka given the evolving nature of the pandemic and other corelated variables such as vaccination rates (currently 74%) and efforts in curtailing the pandemic. In addition to the direct impact of the pandemic, there could be other myriad variables that could affect inbound tourism into the country. Therefore, the following document provides growth scenarios based on two main perspectives, a conservative scenario and a more optimistic scenario from 2021 to 2025. The scenarios are meant to provide an updated overview of international inbound tourism arrivals to Sri Lanka on an annual basis. The data is meant to provide a viewpoint on how Sri Lanka's tourism recovery could unfold to support investment, marketing and product development decisions. 3

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