Fiscal and Loan Portfolio Analysis

Key drivers of economic growth . Export-led growth with sufficient diversity Agricultural product exports of US$282m in 2009 • Ferroalloy exports of US$426m in 2008 Aircraft, rail car, vessels and vehicles exports of US$122m in 2008 and US$107m in 2009 Fertilizers exports of US$105m in 2008 and US$60m 2009 Machinery exports of US$29m in 2008 and US$30m in 2009 Oil and gas pipelines Russia-Georgia-Armenia pipeline - 5.8 bcm/year Shah-Deniz (BTE) gas pipeline - 6.6 bcm/year Iran-Azerbaijan-Georgia (IAG) gas pipeline - 3.5 bcm/year Baku-Supsa oil pipeline - 5.75 mt/year Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) oil pipeline - 50 mt/year Huge untapped hydro-power resources - only 18% of Georgia's hydro potential is being utilized Increasing domestic consumption Consumer spending in 2008 - US$3.8bn estimated average household size of 3.7, far higher than in most CEE/CIS peers new construction has not caught up with the cumulative deterioration of the Soviet-built housing stock less than 18,000 households (out of the estimated total of 1.3 million) have mortgages Consumer debt per capita (including mortgages) stood at US$92 as of 31 December 2009 Organized retail trade (supermarkets, hypermarkets, consumer electronics & white goods, etc) account for a low share of total ■ FDI expected at US$ 0.8 bn in 2010 Economic growth is supported by ■ Free industrial zones created around Poti (port), Kutaisi (second largest city) etc. (Tax rates in zones largely 0%) ■ Net transfers from abroad Increasing consumer spending ■ Sustained government spending Source: Ministry of Economic Development, Ministry of Finance, State Statistics Department www.bog.ge/ir LOLEJN BANK OF GEORGIA March 2010

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