Investor Presentaiton
Illustrative FY2018 Credit Profile & Sensitivity
MTGA
(1)
Analysis Assumes
Financial performance flat to
LTM period
No improvement to
operations or capital
structure
Earth Hotel & Cowlitz open
as scheduled
Paragon consulting / MGMT
fees based on current
projections
All FCF repays debt
Revenues
Core EBITDA
Paragon Consulting/Mgmt Fees
Earth Hotel Income
Cowlitz Mgmt Fees
EBITDA
Capex
Tribal Distributions
Interest Expense
Free Cash Flow
Total Debt
(3)
LTM
3/31/2016
FYE2016
FYE2017
FYE2018
1,326.4
1,326.4
1,326.4
1,326.4
358.5
358.5
358.5
358.5
(2)
1.1
2.4
2.0
10.0
10.0
4.1
16.2
358.5
359.6
375.0
386.7
(41.0)
(52.0)
(35.0)
(35.0)
(51.2)
(53.0)
(53.0)
(53.0)
(133.6)
(128.4)
(123.6)
(116.8)
132.7
126.2
163.4
181.9
1,720.5
1,657.4
4.80x
4.61x
1,494.0
3.98x
1,312.1
3.39x
No impact from Korea
management or
development fees in FCF
(however sensitivity analysis
below details this)
Key Takeaways
CT EBITDA would have to
decline 60% for MTGA to
achieve 1x Interest Coverage
(including Capex and Tribal
Distributions)
With Korea MGMT Fees,
EBITDA would have to
decline by 70%
MTGA is on track to achieve
goal of Total Leverage 'in the
3's" by 2018
(1) Restricted Group projections
Total Leverage
EBITDA-Capex-Tribal Dists
266.3
254.6
287.0
298.7
EBITDA-Capex-Tribal Dists / Interest Expense
1.99x
1.98x
2.32x
2.56x
2018E EBITDA Sensitivity
1.00x
1.20x
1.30x
1.40x
1.50x
Pro Forma EBITDA-Capex-Tribal Dists ($)
116.8
140.2
151.8
163.5
175.2
CT EBITDA Decline ($)
181.9
158.5
146.9
135.2
123.5
CT EBITDA Decline (%)
60%
52%
48%
45%
41%
Sensitivity w/ S. Korea Mgmt Fees
1.00x
1.20x
1.30x
1.40x
1.50x
Pro Forma EBITDA-Capex-Tribal Dists ($)
116.8
140.2
151.8
163.5
175.2
(4)
CT EBITDA Decline ($)
211.9
188.5
176.9
165.2
153.5
CT EBITDA Decline (%)
70%
62%
58%
54%
51%
(2) Assumes $2.7mm consulting fee followed by $2mm annual management fee
(3) Assumes 1/4 year of estimated average annual fee income in 2017
(4) Assumes South Korea fees equate to 3% of net revenues, fees commence in 2020
Mohegan Sun
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