Q3 2020 Business Update amid Covid-19
Business environment -
Recession in 2020 due to Coronavirus; partial rebound expected in 2021
Real GDP growth (in %)
2020
2021
Net export contribution* (in %) Consumer price inflation (avg, in %)
Dom. demand contribution* (in %)
6.0
4.3
4.7
5.2
5.0
4.0
3.9
4.2
4.4
3.1
2.6
3.3
2.0
3.2
3.3 3.1
2.7 2.8
1.4
0.9
0.9 0.8
0.3
1.9 2.0
1.6
-1.7
1.2
1.1
-4.7
-2.8
0.8
-6.2
-6.3
-5.8
-1.3
-4.2
-1.8
-4.6
-4.5
-7.9
-9.0
-6.0
-3.3
AT CZ SK RO HU HR
AT CZ SK RO HU HR
AT CZ
-3.0
SK RO HU HR
-3.1
-2.8
0.0 ☐
AT CZ SK RO HU
HR
•
Erste Group's markets to decline by 4-9% in 2020; rebound expected in 2021
•
•
Unemployment rate (avg, in %)
Current account balance (% of GDP)
Both exports and consumption will suffer in 2020; hardest hit industries expected to be tourism, services, transport, and retail trade
Real GDP expected to rebound in 2021 as recent government measures will mainly be concentrated on retail & services; production less impacted
Public debt (% of GDP)
Gen gov balance (% of GDP)
9.5
2.8
2.3
8.5
88 85
88 86
8.1
7.1 7.4
1.1
75 72
0.3
5.8 5.4
61 63
5.9
4.6 4.9
4.0
-0.2
-3.0
40 41
44 47
2.6
-1.3
-1.0 -1.3
-4.3
-4.2
-1.7
-4.7
-6.0
-5.5
-2.6
-6.6
-3.4
-7.3
-8.1
-8.0
-4.1
-9.0 -8.6
AT
CZ SK
RO HU HR
AT
CZ SK RO HU
HR
AT
CZ
SK RO HU HR
AT
CZ SK
RO
HU
HR
•
Unemployment rates will increase across the region in 2020
•
Lower tax revenues and higher social payments will lead to rising fiscal deficits
* Contribution to real GDP growth. Domestic demand contribution includes inventory change. Source: Erste Group Research, EU Commission
ERSTEŚ
Group
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