Investor Presentaiton
Challenging alumina markets in Q4
Tightening at year-end on industry curtailments
Three key events impacting alumina
market dynamics
01 Chinese bauxite sourcing
USD/t
Platts alumina index (PAX)
Million mt
20%
1,0
450
Domestic bauxite sourcing constraints causing
temporary alumina capacity curtailments
18%
Q4
400
02
Explosion & fire at fuel depot in
Guinea
350
•
Uncertainties over Guinean bauxite shipments to
China in the wake of extensive fire damage to the
main oil depot in Guinea
03 Industry curtailments
Announced industry curtailment affects the global
alumina balance and tightens the market
Source: CRU, Hydro Analysis, Platts, Bloomberg
300
Jan-23
Apr-23
Jul-23
Oct-23
Jan-24
Regional alumina market balances
0,5
16%
14%
12%
0,6
0,7
W
10%
-0,6
-0,7
0,0
-0,2
PAX
Shanxi ex-works (ex-VAT)
% LME 3m (rhs)
2022
2023
-0,9
2024e
World ex China
China
World
LO
5
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