2019 Interim Results Credit Presentation
Economic and Interest Rate Outlook
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Solid growth in Ireland;
UK expanding more moderately
8.1%
8.2%
4.8%
3.8%
LLI
1.8%
1.4%
2019 Interim Results Credit Presentation
Unemployment rate in Ireland
and UK at low levels
Lower for longer interest rates
now expected
6.7%
5.7%
4.6%
4.2%
4.4%
1.2%
1.4%
4.1%
3.8%
3.8%
0.68%
0.40%
0.96%
100bps
decline
(0.20%)
(0.32%)
(0.04%)
2020f
Dec 2019
Dec 2020
Dec 2021
-- Jan 19
Jul 19
2017
2018
ROI GDP
2019f
2020f
2017
2018
UK GDP
(annual real growth)
The Irish economy is continuing to
expand at a solid pace and faster than
the Euro area average
Growth has moderated in the UK
Brexit-related uncertainty is weighing
on consumer and business sentiment,
with some firms in Ireland putting their
plans on hold and a clear weakening in
business investment in the UK
2019f
ROI unemployment rate
UK unemployment rate
(annual average)
With the unemployment rate in
Ireland and the UK at a low level,
both economies are effectively at full
employment
Sources: Bank of Ireland Economic Research Unit, CSO, Office for National Statistics, GFK, Markit, EU Commission. GDP and unemployment
forecasts assume current UK-EU trading arrangements apply over the forecast horizon consistent with a further extension of Article 50 or a
transition period
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(Euro 5yr swap rate)
Material change in interest rate
outlook with interest rates expected
to be lower for longer
Geopolitical risks impacting global
growth
Bank of Ireland
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