Kinnevik Results Presentation Deck
Intro
Net Asset Value
our unlisted companies aim to disrupt. As a consequence, our Virtual
Care companies are valued at a material premium to the peer group, at
around 17.5-20x 2022 revenues on average.
The fair value of Kinnevik's 5 percent shareholding in Spring Health
amounts to SEK 932m, and is in line with the capital we invested into
the company when it raised capital during the third quarter of 2021.
The valuation of the company has been adjusted downwards to reflect
the multiple compression of the listed peer group in the quarter, but
due to liquidation preferences the fair value of our shareholding re-
mains unchanged in dollar terms. Also after this downwards adjustment,
the valuation remains at a significant but unchanged premium to the
forward-looking multiples of a peer group of telemedicine operators,
justified by Spring Health's materially higher growth rate.
PLATFORMS & MARKETPLACES
Our Platforms and Marketplace businesses is arguably the most diverse
group of investments in our new NAV categorization. The group spans
online grocer businesses such as Mathem and Oda with mid-30s gross
margins, to pure marketplaces like Jobandtalent with gross margins more
than twice as high. Accordingly, these businesses are valued against
different peer sets. The average peer group valuation levels span 1-3x
2022 revenues for lower-margin e-commerce peers and around 6x 2022
revenues on average for higher margin marketplace peers. Average peer
growth rates were typically around 40-45 percent in 2021 in both ends
of the margin spectrum. Our Platforms & Marketplaces companies are
typically valued in line with their respective peer group average. This is
reflective of their later stage of maturity, but also of the valuation levels
at these businesses have raised capital relative to how their listed peer
groups were valued at the time.
The fair value of Kinnevik's 28 percent shareholding in Budbee amounts
to SEK 1,309m, flat in the quarter. The valuation is based on near-term
forward-looking multiples inferred from a set of logistics technology and
mobility businesses such as InPost (INPST.AS), DoorDash (DASH) and
Uber (UBER). Budbee's revenue multiple is in line with the peer group
average, and as such our assessed valuation can from here on out move
more in tandem with the company's performance and the movements
KINNEVIK
Interim Report Q1 2022
Portfolio Overview
Sustainability
of the broader peer group.
The fair value of Kinnevik's 31 percent shareholding in Mathem
amounts to SEK 699m, down more than 40 percent in the quarter. The
valuation is based on trailing revenue multiples of a composite peer group
of inventory holding e-commerce retailers and meal kit businesses such
as Zalando (ZAL.DE), Boozt (BOOZT.ST) and HelloFresh (HFG.DE), as well
as estimates of market valuations of Ocado's (OCDO.L) retail business.
The multiples of key peers contracted by more than 35 percent in the
quarter. Meanwhile, the merger with Mat.se was concluded, and Math-
em entered into a long-term strategic supply agreement with Axfood's
purchasing and logistics company Dagab. This strengthens Mathem's
outlook materially, and warrants a slightly contracting discount to the
peer group over the last two quarters. The assessed valuation implies a
multiple of 0.8x the company's 2021 revenues, but is based on revenues
during the last twelve months as at 31 March 2022.
The fair value of Kinnevik's 21 percent shareholding in Oda amounts to
SEK 1,499m, down almost 7 percent in the quarter. The valuation is based
on a combination of trailing and forward-looking revenue multiples of a
composite peer group corresponding to that of Mathem. The decrease in
fair value is due to Oda's growth not offsetting the material peer multiple
contraction in the quarter. The assessed valuation implies a multiple of
2.5x the company's 2021 revenues, at a significant premium to the peer
group. The multiple declines to a level more in line with key peers looking
into 2023, as Oda is expected to grow at a significantly higher rate fueled
by its geographical expansion. The valuation also reflects the exceptional
operational efficiency of the company's proprietary fulfilment solution.
The fair value of Kinnevik's 11 percent shareholding in HungryPanda
amounts to SEK 511m, down some 11 percent in the quarter to reflect
the general derating in the peer group. The valuation is based on for-
ward-looking GMV multiples in line with the average of a peer group of
food delivery businesses like Doordash (DASH), Delivery Hero (DHER.
DE) and Just Eat Takeaway.com (TKWY.AS). Our holding benefits slightly
(less than a 5 percent effect on our fair value) from downside protection
from the preferential terms of our investment in the company's latest
equity fundraises.
The fair value of Kinnevik's 11 percent shareholding in Vivino amounts
Financial Statements
Other
to SEK 525m, effectively flat in the quarter. The valuation is based on
forward-looking GMV multiples of a peer group of global online mar-
ketplaces with high user engagement such as Etsy (ETSY). The discount
to the peer group's average GMV multiple is primarily calibrated by
comparing Vivino's profitability with the peer group's, taking into account
Vivino's more efficient marketing economics thanks to its potential to
organically acquire customers through its high-engagement platform.
Our assessed value of the company as a whole is written-down in line
with the trading of the peer group in the quarter, and the valuation
remains at an unchanged and relatively material discount to the peer
group's average forward-looking GMV multiple. Our holding benefits
from downside protection from the preferential terms of our investment
in the company's latest equity fundraise, which is why the fair value of
our investment remains largely unchanged.
The fair value of Kinnevik's 5 percent shareholding in Jobandtalent
amounts to SEK 1,047m, effectively flat in the quarter. The valuation is
based on near-term forward-looking revenue multiples of a peer group
consisting of human capital-focused businesses such as Fiverr (FVRR)
and Upwork (UPWK), with reference also to B2B marketplaces. The peer
group's average multiple contracted by almost 15 percent in the first
quarter, rendering an approximate 10 percent write-down of the com-
pany as revenue growth mutes the impact of a contracting multiple. The
company remains valued at an unchanged and narrow premium to the
peer group considering its superior growth rate at comparable margins.
Our holding benefits from downside protection from the preferential
terms of our investment in the company's fundraise in the fourth quarter
of 2021, causing an effectively unchanged fair value.
SOFTWARE
Our Software businesses are typically benchmarked against a peer set of
SaaS businesses such as Atlassian (TEAM) and Salesforce (CRM), and of
more transactional software businesses like Twilio (TWLO) and Shopify
(SHOP). The companies in the peer set typically grew revenue at around
35 percent in 2021 and have gross margins of 80 percent, compared to
our businesses which typically are growing more than four times faster
with almost comparable gross margins.
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