Credit Quality Overview

M bpd 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 Dec-10 Mar-11 UAE Oil production OPEC oil price (rhs) Source: Bloomberg, Emirates NBD Research UAE Oil Production (Ihs) UAE Economic Update Highlights 2014 growth estimates at 5%. Oil production has been flat y/y in the year-to-September, lower than the forecast earlier this year Non-oil sector growth accelerated, according to Purchasing Managers' Index, which reached record highs in Q3, on the back of strong output and new order growth, reflecting improved domestic and external demand Inflation accelerated on higher housing costs and rising input prices reaching 2.4% y/y in August and averaging 2% since January, below the 3% forecast for inflation in 2014 from 1.1% in 2013 Real GDP Growth Forecasts Country UAE China 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014F 2015F 1.6% 4.9% 4.7% 5.2% 5.0% 4.8% 10.4% 9.3% 7.7% 7.7% 7.0% 7.3% Eurozone 2.0% 1.6% -0.7% -0.4% 0.5% 1.5% Hong Kong 6.8% 4.8% 1.5% 2.9% 3.2% 3.5% India 9.4% 7.7% 4.8% 4.7% 4.8% 5.5% Japan 4.7% -0.5% 1.5% 1.5% 2.5% 1.5% Singapore 15.4% 5.3% 2.5% 3.9% 3.8% 3.9% UK 1.7% 1.1% 0.3% 1.7% 2.5% 2.0% US 2.5% 1.8% 2.8% 1.9% 3.0% 3.5% Saudi 7.4% 8.6% 5.8% 3.8% 4.7% 4.0% Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 T 1201220 80 60 USD per barrel 54 53 52 51 50 g$$གྷཐ88 59 58 57 56 55 Aug-09 Oct-09 Dec-09 Feb-10 Apr-10 Jun-10 Aug-10 Source: Markit/HSBC Oct-10 Dec-10 Feb-11 Apr-11 Jun-11 Aug-11 Oct-11 Dec-11 Feb-12 Source: Bloomberg, Emirates NBD Research UAE PMI - Non Oil Private Sector Activity Apr-12 Jun-12 Aug-12 Oct-12 Dec-12 Feb-13 Apr-13 Jun-13 Aug-13 Oct-13 Dec-13 Feb-14 Apr-14 Jun-14 Aug-14 4 Emirates NBD

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