Feeding the Future

Expect increased potash demand in North America and Brazil in 2023 Millions of Tonnes KCI 20 15 10 2023 5 T 0 19 20 21 22 23F India 19 20 21 22 23F Other Asia 19 20 21 North America 22 23F 2.7 3.0Mmt The settlement of a new potash contract in early April at $422/t provides Indian buyers an incentive to import fresh volumes in 2023, although we anticipate shipments will fall below historical norms. 8.3 9.8Mmt Palm oil prices remain historically high; and high- priced 2022 inventories have been largely drawn down, incenting buyers to reengage with the market; particularly with the added stability brought by an Indian contract. 9.5 10.5Mmt Increased acreage expectations and strong crop commodity prices have led to strengthening demand as the spring application season has progressed. 19 20 21 22 23F Latin America 15.0 16.5Mmt Brazil's Q1-23 shipments were in-line with recent years as potash affordability has improved y-o-y. Further engagement is expected as the market prepares for the safra season. 19 20 21 22 23F China 19 20 21 22 23F Other 14.0 15.0 Mmt China's 2023 potash contract remains unsettled, but demand in-country is strong as the government targets an increase in grain production of 10% y-o-y, which we expect will drive the need for fresh seaborne imports later this year. 12.5 13.5Mmt Growing demand for NPK fertilizers are expected to continue boosting potash demand in the long-run, however supply constraints likely to result in below trend demand in 2023. ... 18 Source: Industry Consultants, Nutrien

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