Investor Presentaiton
Growth Scenarios for Tourism to Sri Lanka: November 2021
Methodology
The growth scenarios have been calculated primarily based on a time series analysis of actual arrivals to Sri Lanka. In addition,
arrival fluctuations by month (peak & off peak), the Pacific Asia Travel Association's 2021 forecast scenarios, and the rate of growth
of international arrivals to Sri Lanka from 2010 to2018 were analysed. Two main scenarios namely, a conservative scenario denoting
an average level of growth and an optimistic scenario denoting an upper growth level are presented to provide a possible range of
international tourist arrivals to Sri Lanka.
The growth scenarios to 2023, were produced based on a time series analysis of the rate of growth of international tourist arrivals
to Sri Lanka for ten months of 2021 (i.e., January through October). Arrival fluctuations in relation to each month were considered in
producing the two scenarios.
The conservative scenario for the years 2024 and 2025, was calculated using the average value of the Pacific Asia Travel
Association's 2021 forecast scenarios and the time series analysis completed by SLTDA.
The optimistic scenario for the years 2024 and 2025 was calculated using the lower value figure of the 2010 to 2018 arrivals growth
trend.
The data presented is current as of the time of publishing (i.e., November 30, 2021) and subject to change given market forces.
SLTDA is planning on updating these growth scenarios on a quarterly basis.
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