KBank Subsidiaries and ASEAN Economic Strategy
K
ธนาคารกสิกรไทย
开泰银行 KASIKORNBANK
KASIKORNTHAI
Challenges: Exports
Export is expected to mediocre in 2020 amid global trade uncertainties and transitions to structural changes
Short-term Challenges
Key Structural Problems
Key Affected Products
Short-term Measures from Authorities
and Related Parties
Long-term Measures from Authorities
and Related Parties
■Faltering global demand
■THB appreciation
Exports
■ US trade policy, e.g. measures to reduce trade deficit from 16 major countries
■Trade uncertainties
■High dependence on China's market
■Changing demand in electronic products and loss of competitiveness in some areas
(e.g., HDD)
■High crop surplus among competitors
■Electronics and Electrical Appliances (Structural Challenge)
■Fishery and Agriculture Products (US SIMP)
■Steel and Aluminum, Washing machine (US tariffs)
■Plastic, ICs, Machinery and Electrical Equipment (US-China's trade dispute)
■ Extending products to catch up with changing consumer trends
■ Enhancing practices to comply with international standards
■Setting up export promotion board
■ Providing supports to help individuals gain skills and qualifications relevant to the needs
of the labour market
■Negotiating FTA and regional trade agreements
■Relocating factories to GSP eligible countries
■Promoting BOI's privileges which grant merit based on competitiveness enhancements
■ Enhancing productivity
Note: HDD Hard Disk Drive; IUU fishing = Illegal Unreported and Unregulated fishing; FTA = Free Trade Area; GSP = Generalized System of Preferences; BOI = the Board of Investment of Thailand
Source: KResearch (as of April 2019)
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K
KASIKORNTHAI
Impacts of US-China trade dispute
China's exports to US subject to tariffs
ธนาคารกสิกรไทย
开泰银行 KASIKORN BANK
USD 50 bn
US imposes tariffs
on Chinese goods
% tariff rates on Chinese 25% (List 1,2)
goods to US
Postponed until further notice
USD 200 bn
25% (List 3)
USD 120 bn
USD 160 bn
7.5% (List 4A)
(Feb 2020)
Thai exports lost USD1.1bn during 2018-2019 or 0.1% of annual GDP
Thai exports to US to
Thai exports to China
+
+
to replace US goods
replace Chinese goods
Thai exports to US
(USDbn)
Thai exports to China
China to dominate CLMV
as Thailand set to lose out
(USDbn)
% Share of Thai goods
to CLMV's import
List 1:
5.8
5.0
+5.4%
List 1:
1.2
+92%
2.3
Electrical
appliance
3.8%
3.0%
+10%
List 2:
1.9
Electronic
-26%
1.4
equipment
14.5
16
+10%
List 3:
4.5
+73%
Iron/
Aluminum
List 2:
1.9
2.1
List 3:
China exports to US
(USDbn)
List 1:
32.2
23.3
List 2:
13.9
8.9
List 3:
US exports to China
(USDbn)
-28%
List 1:
30
2.7
-36%
List 2:
9.1
28
List 3:
146.5
-23%
9.9%
8.4%
5.6%)
4.8%
% Share of Chinese.
goods to CLMV's import
Electrical
-10%
appliance
Electronic
-69%
equipment
Iron/
20.0
18.5
-7%
3.3%
40%
38%
44%
42%
45%
CLMV
CLMV
The two-year US-China trade war
shaved Thai exports by
USD1.1bn, although some Thai
products benefited as
replacements for Chinese/US
products, both directly and
indirectly. Volume is still not
enough to cover the drop in
exports to countries within China's
supply chain. Moreover, Thailand
lost its foothold in the markets of
neighboring countries
However, the trade war has eased
since the 'Phase 1' US-China
trade deal was signed on January
15, 2020. At present, the COVID-
19 outbreak is putting
international trade in greater
jeopardy
The US presidential election in
November has complicated the
trade war situation, which is likely
to be protracted. A 'Phase 2' trade
deal is unlikely to materialize
anytime soon. Meanwhile, the
geopolitical tension is set to
continue
Source: USITC, Trademap.org, Ministry of Commerce
2017
Aluminum
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