Guidelines for the Development of the Russian Financial Market
Bank of Russia
RUSSIAN MACRO UPDATE
The Central Bank of the Russian Federation
INFLATION EXPECTATIONS
21
21
Inflation expectations are at historical lows but their decline has yet to become sustainable and consistent
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Expectation horizon
Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017
2018
2018
2018
Expected inflation (absolute value), %
Population
FOM (FOM sociological service) poll
FOM poll (Bank of Russia estimates)
Professional analysts
Next 12 months
Next 12 months
14,7
7,4
14,2
14,2
12,4
11,2
10,3
9,6
8,7
8,9
8,4
8,5
6,7
5,9
5,1
4,0
4,0
2,8
2,4
2,1
2,2
2,1
Bloomberg
Interfax
2018
4,0
4,0
4,0
4,0
4,0
2018
4,2
4,1
4,1
3,9
3,8
3,8
Reuters
2018
4,1
4,0
4,1
3,8
3,8
Financial markets
Inflation-linked OFZ bonds
Next 6 years
5,4
4,6
4,5
4,6
4,5
4,3
3,9
3,7
3,7
Inflation-linked OFZ bonds (no option
Next 6 years
6,9
6,0
5,3
5,4
4,9
4,7
4,3
4,1
4,1
adjustment)
Bond market
Next quarter
12,0
6,9
7,2
6,6
5,3
4,4
4,5
3,3
Interbank lending market
Next quarter
9,9
5,3
5,4
5,6
4,6
3,7
3,4
2,5
Inflation expectations (balanced index*)
Households
FOM poll
Next 12 months
84
78
82
80
79
FOM poll
Next month
72
68
70
76
18
80
82
78
78
75
68
68
73
73
69
61
Business
REB (Russian Economic Barometer)
Next 3 months
14
38
36
46
22
Bank of Russia (monitoring)
Next 3 months
12,4
12,1
10,4
12,4
28
20
14
52
6,8
9,6
6,6
9,4
7,1
Retail prices (Russian Federal Statistics
Service)
Next quarter
32
32
29
28
27
27
24
24
22
Tariffs (Russian Federal Statistics
Service)
Next quarter
5
5
0
0
4
3
0
0
Change against the previous 3 months:
Source: Bank of Russia, FOM
-inflation expectations improved (standard deviation >1)
-inflation expectations improved (standard deviation <1)
-inflation expectations unchanged (standard deviation at 0±0,2)
-inflation expectations worsened (standard deviation < 1)
-inflation expectations worsened (standard deviation > 1)
*Balanced index is the difference between the number of respondents expecting a rise in prices and the number of those expecting a fallView entire presentation