Guidelines for the Development of the Russian Financial Market slide image

Guidelines for the Development of the Russian Financial Market

Bank of Russia RUSSIAN MACRO UPDATE The Central Bank of the Russian Federation INFLATION EXPECTATIONS 21 21 Inflation expectations are at historical lows but their decline has yet to become sustainable and consistent Jan. Feb. Mar. Expectation horizon Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017 2018 2018 2018 Expected inflation (absolute value), % Population FOM (FOM sociological service) poll FOM poll (Bank of Russia estimates) Professional analysts Next 12 months Next 12 months 14,7 7,4 14,2 14,2 12,4 11,2 10,3 9,6 8,7 8,9 8,4 8,5 6,7 5,9 5,1 4,0 4,0 2,8 2,4 2,1 2,2 2,1 Bloomberg Interfax 2018 4,0 4,0 4,0 4,0 4,0 2018 4,2 4,1 4,1 3,9 3,8 3,8 Reuters 2018 4,1 4,0 4,1 3,8 3,8 Financial markets Inflation-linked OFZ bonds Next 6 years 5,4 4,6 4,5 4,6 4,5 4,3 3,9 3,7 3,7 Inflation-linked OFZ bonds (no option Next 6 years 6,9 6,0 5,3 5,4 4,9 4,7 4,3 4,1 4,1 adjustment) Bond market Next quarter 12,0 6,9 7,2 6,6 5,3 4,4 4,5 3,3 Interbank lending market Next quarter 9,9 5,3 5,4 5,6 4,6 3,7 3,4 2,5 Inflation expectations (balanced index*) Households FOM poll Next 12 months 84 78 82 80 79 FOM poll Next month 72 68 70 76 18 80 82 78 78 75 68 68 73 73 69 61 Business REB (Russian Economic Barometer) Next 3 months 14 38 36 46 22 Bank of Russia (monitoring) Next 3 months 12,4 12,1 10,4 12,4 28 20 14 52 6,8 9,6 6,6 9,4 7,1 Retail prices (Russian Federal Statistics Service) Next quarter 32 32 29 28 27 27 24 24 22 Tariffs (Russian Federal Statistics Service) Next quarter 5 5 0 0 4 3 0 0 Change against the previous 3 months: Source: Bank of Russia, FOM -inflation expectations improved (standard deviation >1) -inflation expectations improved (standard deviation <1) -inflation expectations unchanged (standard deviation at 0±0,2) -inflation expectations worsened (standard deviation < 1) -inflation expectations worsened (standard deviation > 1) *Balanced index is the difference between the number of respondents expecting a rise in prices and the number of those expecting a fall
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