Sustainable Bond Framework
Solid near-term growth outlook and inflationary pressures
Following five consecutive years of a strong economic
growth, and well above the eurozone average,
economic activity recorded a contraction of 4.4% in 2020
due to the COVID-19 pandemic, albeit
a lower
pace than other eurozone countries.
at
In 2021, the economy recorded a positive rate of
growth of 6.6% of GDP in real terms compared to the year
2020.
In 2022 the economic activity remained strong despite
the adverse external environment. The economy
recorded a positive growth rate of 5.6% of GDP
compared to the corresponding period in 2021. For the
period 2023-2025, the real GDP growth is forecast at
around 3.2% on average.
Since April 2021 inflation rates turned again to
positive territory recorded an increase of 2.5% in 2021
with core inflation averaging at 1.1%. In 2022 CPI inflation
recorded an increase of 8.4% with core inflation averaging at
4.9%.
The largest positive effects in the change of the CPI in 2022
were attributed mainly to increases in the price of housing,
water, electricity, gas and other fuels and transport. In
January 2023 the CPI inflation increased by 7.1% compared
to January 2022.
Source: Cyprus Statistical Service, Ministry of Finance
Real GDP growth (% change)
-1.8
3.4
6.6
6.6
5.6
5.7 5.6 5.5
A
-4.4
3.3 3.2
3.0
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022e 2023f 2024f 2025f
Annual inflation (CPI) (% change)
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
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Jan-15
Jul-15
Jan-16
Jul-16
Jan-17
Jul-17
Jan-18
Jul-18
Jan-19
Jul-19
Jan-20
Jul-20
Jan-21
Jul-21
Jan-22
Jul-22
Jan-23
Note: "f" denotes forecasts by the Ministry of Finance, as of Oct. 2022. All forecasts are based on assumptions and there can be no assurance they will be realised.
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