2022 Annual Review & Inflation Shock Impact
Oliver Wyman Loss Trends
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Aviva believes that Oliver Wyman's loss trends would be appropriate if we were living in a period of stability and certainty but we are
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not
OW recognizes that we are in unprecedented times and estimates of future trend are subject to considerable uncertainty due to
COVID-19, inflation and 2020 reforms
OW's future loss trends are understated because they do no include an adjustment for inflation shock (elevated inflation)
All coverages (PD, BI and AB) will be impacted by inflation shock
OW's Bodily Injury loss trend is understated because the 2020 reforms are not delivering the projected savings
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The past is not a good indicator of the future
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Board needs to look beyond data and indications and give more weight to opinions of company's actuaries
AVIVA
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