Fertiglobe Financial Overview
Nitrogen Outlook Supported by Attractive Supply-Demand Dynamics
Supporting Strong Pricing Outlook For H2 2022 and Beyond as We Recover From a 5-year Downturn
Bull Market Drivers Support Demand Driven Environment
CROP PRICES DRIVING HEALTHY FARM ECONOMICS AND NITROGEN DEMAND
Corn Futures >$5/bushel and Wheat Futures >$7/bushel supportive of affordability
Grain stocks to use ratios at decade lows, requiring at least until 2024 to replenish
Prior cycle (last 5-6 years)
30%
corn stocks-to-use ratio
$3.7/bushel
average corn price 2015-2019
Next cycle (starting in 2022)(2)
26%
corn stocks-to-use ratio
$6.5/bushel
corn futures 2022 - 2024
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Fertiglobe
GAS AND COAL PRICES RESET AT HIGH LEVELS
Feedstock pricing has support to remain well above historical averages given tight supply
fundamentals and limited Russian gas flows which cannot be made up with incremental LNG
volumes given capacity and logistics bottlenecks
$5/MMBtu
TTF (Dutch natural gas hub)
$35/MMBtu
TTF to end 2024(1)
TIGHTENING NITROGEN MARKET BALANCES
New urea capacity is limited, faces delays and accelerating Chinese closures
Structurally tighter merchant ammonia market with limited net capacity additions
23mt new urea capacity vs.
17mt demand growth
over 2015 2019
11mt new urea capacity vs.
16mt demand growth
over 2022 2026
ENVIRONMENTAL FOCUS DRIVES SHIFT FROM GREY TO GREEN
Stricter mandates around environment regulations are barriers to enter this industry
Global push to move towards Hâ‚‚ economy adds incremental low-carbon ammonia demand
Wave of "grey" greenfield capacity
additions in US, Europe, MENA
Limited new grey ammonia capacity
from established producers and
significant new ESG driven ammonia
demand by 2025
Source: Company Information, CRU, Industry Reports, Hydrogen Council
Note: (1) Average TTF from Nov-22 to Dec-24
An ADNOC and OCI Company
(2) Expected figures
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