Investor Presentaiton
Macroeconomic situation and outlook
Corporate loans and deposits (YoY, FX-adjusted)
30%
Source: NBP
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
Household loans and deposits (YoY, FX-adjusted)
14%
Source: NBP
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
Jan-13 Oct-13 Jul-14 Apr-15 Jan-16 Oct-16 Jul-17 Apr-18 Jan-19 Oct-19 Jul-20 Apr-21 Jan-22
Corporate deposits
Corporate loans
Corporate investment loans
Corporate credit still enjoys decent growth rates, but momentum is slowly
faltering. Economic cycle seems to be inevitable going forward. At the same time,
deposit base is growing steadily.
Government bond yields: on the rise (bps)
Jan-13 Oct-13 Jul-14 Apr-15 Jan-16 Oct-16 Jul-17 Apr-18 Jan-19 Oct-19 Jul-20 Apr-21 Jan-22
Household deposits
Household loans
Mortgage loans
New credit creation dropped like a stone, especially in mortgage segment due to
high interest rates and regulatory requirements. Growth of household deposits
weakens but it is unlikely to turn negative.
PLN: weak and bleak perspectives for spectacular improvement
900
5.00
800
4.80
700
4.60
600
4.40
500
400
4.20
300
4.00
200
3.80
100
0
3.60
Jan-19
Jul-19
Jan-20
Jul-20
Jan-21
Jul-21
2Y
⚫5Y
10Y
Jan-22
Source: Bloomberg
Jul-22
Jan-19
Jul-19
Jan-20
Jul-20
EUR/PLN
⚫CHF/PLN
Jan-21
USD/PLN
Jul-21
Jan-22
Jul-22
Source: Bloomberg
Bond yields exploded amidst higher inflation, higher expected rate path and some
repricing (higher) in credit risk. And then fell even faster. Due to recession fears, it is
unlikely to revisit the tops again.
Covered Bonds Investor Presentation
Zloty is subject to a series of shocks, with war (and its consequences) being not the
last one. There is some room for improvement on the basis of falling risk aversion
but chances for swift appreciation are slim (cycle turns negative).
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