Market Leader with Potential for Further Penetration
NII-Highly Geared to Rising Rates Due to Strong Liquidity and Sticky Retail Funding
Outlook
Highly sensitive P&L to interest rate movements
.
2023 NII upgraded to >€650 mn
•
2024 NII expected to exceed €625 mn
•
2025 NII expected to be lower than 2024, reflecting lower
projected ECB depo rates (2.5%)
Drivers
Careful credit expansion, prudent interest rate and pass-through
assumptions
•
Highly liquid balance sheet
•
NII bottomed out; reverted to growth on the back of higher rates
Average
ECB depo rate
-0.40%
-0.50%
0.10%
3.0%
3.1%
€ mn
NII
370
344
296
>650
>625
162
2019
2021
2022
2023
2024
1Q2023
Sticky deposit base; low pass-through rate experienced so far
NII sensitivity¹ to parallel shift in interest rates (annualised)
•
Careful growth in fixed income portfolio
•
Factoring in increased MREL issuance cost
•
Careful long-term liquidity management
•
Considering actions to offset NII headwinds from potentially future
lower rates
Y1
+60 bps²
-60 bps²
Total
€70 mn
-€77 mn
1)
Refer to slide 68 for key simplifying assumptions
2)
75 bps shift in USD interest rates
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