Irish Sovereign Green Bonds Update
Impact of Brexit on Ireland will be net negative but deal
means the shock is smaller and spread over long horizon
Modelled impact on output versus No Brexit
baseline: FTA reduces impact significantly
IE trading partners: UK important for good
imports (land bridge) & services exports
-2
-3
-4
-5
-6
0
% of
Goods
total
(2019)
Services
(2019)
Total
(2019)
Exp.
Imp.
Exp. Imp.
Exp. Imp.
US
30.8
15.5
15.8
18.6
21.9
17.9
UK
8.9
20.6
15.8
6.9
13.5
10.6
(ex NI)
NI
1.4
1.9
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
EU-27
37.1
36.7
29.8
19.8
32.8
23.8
China
5.9
5.8
2.8
1.3
4.0
2.3
-7
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
Other
15.9
19.4
35.9
53.4
27.8
45.5
FTA
WTO
Disorderly No-Deal
Gníomhaireacht Bainistíochta an Chisteáin Náisiúnta
National Treasury Management Agency
Source: CBI, NTMA analysis
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