Investor Presentaiton
Defenses against rising energy risks are being built up in 2H22
New fiscal
support and a
strong labor
market
cushion
pressure on
disposable
income
Inflation is likely to have peaked in June-July and will likely remain above previous estimates due to:
i) significantly higher energy price forecasts for 2H22 and 1H23, especially as regards natural gas; and
ii) a stronger transmission to a broader spectrum of goods and services, on resilient demand
Pressure on real household disposable income will be offset to a large extent by new fiscal measures, as
well as increased employment and wages
Fiscal support is expected to exceed €8.0b in FY22 targeting mostly low-income households and SMEs
and could increase further; the net fiscal cost is reduced by about 2/3rds, as it is recouped by the strong
cyclical recovery in tax revenue, proceeds from the carbon emissions trading system and a windfall tax on
excessive profits of electricity producers
Resilient enterprise profitability and higher than expected support to SME and micro firms' turnover
from tourism strengthen the capacity to absorb higher input costs
The Greek economy is in a different phase of the economic cycle with low leverage in the private sector
and real estate valuations still well below their pre-crisis levels
Increase in labor compensation by c6 % in FY22 is backed by strong employment growth and increasing
private sector wages, bolstered by the 9.7% increase in the minimum wage
Greece faces
rather limited
energy
security risks
The energy dependence of the Greek economy on Russia is relatively low:
• Natural gas comprises less than 20% of Greece's final energy consumption, (including its use in
electricity production, while 35% comes from Russia; the rest is sourced from LNG (45%) and the TAP
pipeline from Azerbaijan (20%). Greece's gas imports correspond to only 1.4% of total euro area
consumption
-
• The amount coming from Russia around 8% of final energy consumption, mainly used for
electricity production can be replaced, by a temporary increase in lignite powered electricity plants
until LNG and Renewables capacity catches up; renewables already at c40% of electricity generation
National Bank of Greece 2Q22 results
Key Highlights
NATIONAL BANK
OF GREECE
8View entire presentation