Investor Presentaiton slide image

Investor Presentaiton

Defenses against rising energy risks are being built up in 2H22 New fiscal support and a strong labor market cushion pressure on disposable income Inflation is likely to have peaked in June-July and will likely remain above previous estimates due to: i) significantly higher energy price forecasts for 2H22 and 1H23, especially as regards natural gas; and ii) a stronger transmission to a broader spectrum of goods and services, on resilient demand Pressure on real household disposable income will be offset to a large extent by new fiscal measures, as well as increased employment and wages Fiscal support is expected to exceed €8.0b in FY22 targeting mostly low-income households and SMEs and could increase further; the net fiscal cost is reduced by about 2/3rds, as it is recouped by the strong cyclical recovery in tax revenue, proceeds from the carbon emissions trading system and a windfall tax on excessive profits of electricity producers Resilient enterprise profitability and higher than expected support to SME and micro firms' turnover from tourism strengthen the capacity to absorb higher input costs The Greek economy is in a different phase of the economic cycle with low leverage in the private sector and real estate valuations still well below their pre-crisis levels Increase in labor compensation by c6 % in FY22 is backed by strong employment growth and increasing private sector wages, bolstered by the 9.7% increase in the minimum wage Greece faces rather limited energy security risks The energy dependence of the Greek economy on Russia is relatively low: • Natural gas comprises less than 20% of Greece's final energy consumption, (including its use in electricity production, while 35% comes from Russia; the rest is sourced from LNG (45%) and the TAP pipeline from Azerbaijan (20%). Greece's gas imports correspond to only 1.4% of total euro area consumption - • The amount coming from Russia around 8% of final energy consumption, mainly used for electricity production can be replaced, by a temporary increase in lignite powered electricity plants until LNG and Renewables capacity catches up; renewables already at c40% of electricity generation National Bank of Greece 2Q22 results Key Highlights NATIONAL BANK OF GREECE 8
View entire presentation