3Q 2022 Investor Presentation
Default Rates Expected to Rise; High Yield Spreads Fluctuate
Around Historical Average
Default Rates for Global Speculative-Grade
Corporate Rated Issuance¹
U.S. HY Bond Spreads²
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
Baseline
0%
2008
-Optimistic
Moderately Pessimistic
Severely Pessimistic
4.1% global historical average¹
U.S. HY Bond Spreads
-
Avg U.S. HY Bond Spread
$12.5%
1,000
800
7.9%
A
600
4.3%
3.1%
400
2011
2014
2017
2020
~550 bps historical average²
200
2023F
3Q19 1Q20 3Q20
1Q21 3Q21 1Q22 3Q22
» TTM global speculative-grade default rate remained at 2.3% as of September 30, 2022, but is expected to rise to 2.9% at
the end of 2022 before climbing to 4.3% in September 2023 in the baseline scenario
1. Moody's rated corporate global speculative grade default historical average of 4.1% from 1983 through December 31, 2021. 2022 and 2023 forecasts for trailing twelve months ended December 31, 2022, and September 30, 2023, respectively.
Moody's Investors Service; Default Trends - Global: September 2022 Default Report, October 19, 2022.
Reported data as of September 30, 2022. Bond spreads as of the last day of each month. Historical average is the daily bond spread average between December 31, 1996 - September 30, 2022. Source: St. Louis Fed Database.
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2.
3Q 2022 Investor Presentation
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