3Q 2022 Investor Presentation slide image

3Q 2022 Investor Presentation

Default Rates Expected to Rise; High Yield Spreads Fluctuate Around Historical Average Default Rates for Global Speculative-Grade Corporate Rated Issuance¹ U.S. HY Bond Spreads² 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% Baseline 0% 2008 -Optimistic Moderately Pessimistic Severely Pessimistic 4.1% global historical average¹ U.S. HY Bond Spreads - Avg U.S. HY Bond Spread $12.5% 1,000 800 7.9% A 600 4.3% 3.1% 400 2011 2014 2017 2020 ~550 bps historical average² 200 2023F 3Q19 1Q20 3Q20 1Q21 3Q21 1Q22 3Q22 » TTM global speculative-grade default rate remained at 2.3% as of September 30, 2022, but is expected to rise to 2.9% at the end of 2022 before climbing to 4.3% in September 2023 in the baseline scenario 1. Moody's rated corporate global speculative grade default historical average of 4.1% from 1983 through December 31, 2021. 2022 and 2023 forecasts for trailing twelve months ended December 31, 2022, and September 30, 2023, respectively. Moody's Investors Service; Default Trends - Global: September 2022 Default Report, October 19, 2022. Reported data as of September 30, 2022. Bond spreads as of the last day of each month. Historical average is the daily bond spread average between December 31, 1996 - September 30, 2022. Source: St. Louis Fed Database. MOODY'S | DECODE RISK. UNLOCK OPPORTUNITY. 2. 3Q 2022 Investor Presentation 15
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