Economic Potential of DACCS and Global CCS Progress
[35]
IPCC
5.2 CARBON REMOVALS
NECESSITY OF CARBON REMOVALS
Carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) finds that all scenarios that limit
warming to no more than 1.5°C deploy CDR technologies. Further, most models are
unable to find pathways that limit warming to 1.5°C without CDR technologies (1).
Direct air carbon capture and storage (DACCS) removes CO2 directly from the
atmosphere, while bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) captures CO2
from bioenergy combustion. Because BECCS provides both CDR and usable energy,
BECCS is typically a lower cost option than DACCS. BECCS, though, is limited by the
sustainable biomass available for energy, approximately 131 EJ per year globally (2).
Recent economic modelling by the Global CCS Institute found that reaching net-zero
(based on IPCC SSP1-1.9) is expected to require the maximum possible deployment
of BECCS (3), which is determined by the availability of sustainable biomass. The
deployment of DACCS however is determined by its future cost, which is uncertain. To
understand the potential role of DACCS in achieving net-zero, the Institute examined a
range of possible DACCS costs from US$137 per tCO2 to US$412 per tCO2 (compared to
the IPCC DACCS cost range of US$100-300 per tCO2). The Institute's model provided
results that are broadly consistent with the IPCC's projections of DACCS & BECCS
deployment.
Staying within the remaining carbon budget through this century will be more difficult
and costly without CDR. The scale of the energy transition to net-zero is staggering.
Advanced fuels and their infrastructure must be developed, the electricity sector must
decarbonise, and industry and transport must be transformed. CDR can buy time so that
the rate of transformation is more manageable for the hardest-to-abate, highest-cost
applications (3). CDR can also act as insurance if unexpected constraints arise in other
decarbonisation pathways (3).
Global DACCS cost USD per tCO2
400
350
300
250
Global CCS Institute
FIGURE 19: CUMULATIVE CDR THROUGH 2100 (GTCO₂)¹
150
BECCS
DACCS
Total CDR
200
226-842
109-539
333-1,221
491-510
1.2-786
511-1,277
DACCS IS ECONOMIC
DACCS IS UNECONOMIC
2050
1 The model for the Institute's analysis runs to the year 2065. The CDR results for 2065 were assumed to repeat for years 2061-2100 to arrive at an approximate value for the 21st century for comparison with the IPCC results.
2055
FIGURE 20: BREAKEVEN COSTS FOR DACCS OVER TIME (ASSUMES NO DACCS-SPECIFIC INCENTIVES)
GLOBAL CCS
INSTITUTE
2060
2065View entire presentation