Emirates NBD Banking Sector Update

Emirates NBD 2.6 140 00 60 120 2.5 100 55 2.4 mn bpd 80 2.3 60 2.2 USD per barrel 50 50 40 45 445 2.1 20 2.0 0 40 40 Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 UAE (lhs) --- UAE Quota (Ihs) OPEC oil price (rhs) Aug-09 Sep-09 Source: Bloomberg, Emirates NBD Research Source: HSBC, Markit UAE Economic Update Highlights Estimated UAE GDP growth for 2011 remains 4.6% largely on the back of higher oil production, but risks are skewed to the downside for 2012 in the context of recent global developments GDP growth forecasts for US (1.5%), Japan (0%) and China (9%) has been lowered for the year 2011 while GDP growth forecasts has also been lowered for the year 2012 for US (2%) and Eurozone (1%), since forecasts made earlier this year. PMI data indicated strong private sector growth in H1 2011, but Q3 2011 data showed a sharp slowdown in private sector activity, reflecting the impact of weaker global growth although potentially impacted by seasonal factors Local inflation remains subdued at 0.6% y-o-y in Aug, despite rising food costs; declining housing costs are expected to continue to contain headline CPI and average forecasted inflation this year of 1% is one of the lowest inflation rates in the region. Oil production rises in Sep after dipping in June Real GDP Growth Forecasts 2008 2009 2010 2011F 2012F UAE 7.4% (1.6%) (1.4%) 4.6% 4.2% UK (0.1%) (4.9%) 1.4% 1.0% 1.5% Eurozone 0.3% (4.1%) 1.7% 1.5% 1.0% Germany 0.7% (4.7%) 3.5% 3.5% 2.0% US 0.0% (3.5%) 3.0% 1.5% 2.0% China 9.6% 9.2% 10.3% 9.0% 8.5% Japan (1.2%) (6.3%) 4.0% 0.0% 2.5% Singapore 1.8% (0.8%) 14.5% 5.6% 4.5% 2.2% (2.7%) 7.0% 5.3% 5.5% Hong Kong Source: Global Insight, Emirates NBD forecasts UAE PMI – private sector expansion slows sharply Oct-09 Nov-09 Dec-09 Jan-10 Feb-10 Mar-10 Apr-10 May-10 Jun-10 Jul-10 Aug-10 Sep-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 4 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11

View entire presentation