Investor Presentaiton
Canadian Household Debt
Household debt has been increasing since the mid-1980s
Low interest rates, demographics (including immigration), financial innovation and shift in consumer
attitude/behaviour
Debt increase has largely been driven by mortgage debt (represents ~72% of total household credit)
Household debt to disposable income is only one metric to analyze
While debt growth is not fast by historical standards, income growth has not kept up, leading to increasing
household debt to income ratio
Household debt to income ratio mixes a balance sheet measure "debt" with an income statement measure
"disposable income". Borrowers are not expected to pay off their debts with one year's income
Other considerations regarding consumer indebtedness and consumer resilience to shocks:
Housing affordability - Mortgage debt-service ratios are in line with historical averages at the national level
Interest and principal mortgage debt payments steady at ~6% of disposable income since 2008
Consumers prudently taking advantage of low rates to repay more principal
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Net worth – Net asset levels (assets less debt) are at an all-time high of more than 8 times disposable
income
■ About half of these assets are financial (not real estate)
Asset growth has outpaced debt growth
Interest rate shocks - Despite expectations for higher rates, there are mitigating factors
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Canadians have substantial equity in their homes
The majority of mortgage holders are locked in at fixed rates, with the 5-year term the most popular
■ Variable rate borrowers are qualified at the 5 year posted rate to provide a buffer against interest rate
shocks. These borrowers have the option to switch into fixed rates
Unemployment rate - A key driver of delinquencies and losses that determines borrowers' ability to pay
debt
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Levels are expected to remain fairly stable over the next 2-3 years
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