FY22 Overview & Safety Program Update
ALUMINIUM MARKET
III
SOUTH32
Rising energy and raw material costs have
lifted and steepened the cost curve
Aluminium cost curve (CY21 and CY22)(a)
(US$/t)
4,000
Low inventories and higher
energy prices expected to provide
near-term price support
Aluminium price and stocks
(US$/t, LHS; kt, RHS)
4,500
Rising demand underpinned by energy
transition and cap to Chinese capacity is
expected to provide further tailwinds,
particularly in a 1.5°C scenario
LME Stock
SHFE Stock
14,000
3,500
4,000
LME Price
SHFE Price(a)
12,000
3,000
3,500
2,500 Spot price US$2,376/t(b) with ~30% of the supply loss-making
3,000
10,000
2,500
2,000
CY21 cost curve
1,500
1,000
500
China
Europe
■Middle East & Africa
Americas
Other
Source: CRU
Notes:
a.
b.
Illustrates business costs which represent cash costs net of premiums (normalised to LME index price).
Spot price as of 19 August 2022.
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
2002
2006
2010
2014
2018
2022
Source: LME, SHFE (Shanghai Futures Exchange)
Notes:
a. SHFE prices refer to SHFE excluding VAT of 13% (from 1 April 2019),
16% (from May 2018) and 17% prior to that.
SLIDE 28
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000View entire presentation