2022 Interim Results - Debt Investor Presentation
Irish economy resilient despite
external pressures
6.2%
13.6%
2021a
4.9%
Ireland¹
GDP (real annual growth)
9.2%
2022f
-
5.1%
4.0%
2023f
Unemployment (annual avg)
Eurozone interest rate² and Irish inflation' outlook
2.4%
-0.5%
8.3%
5.8%
1.1%
0.5%
2021 a
2022f
2023f
CPI (annual avg)
- 3 Month Euribor (annual avg)
1 Forecasts from Bank of Ireland Economic Research Unit (ERU), CPI = Consumer Price Index
2 Market pricing as at 25/7/22
Sources: Bloomberg; Central Bank of Ireland; CSO; EU Commission
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Bank of Ireland 2022 Interim Results - Debt Investor Presentation
Irish economy well positioned to face global economic
uncertainties
Notwithstanding external headwinds, Ireland is forecast to
be the EU's fastest-growing economy for a third successive
year in 2022, despite a recent moderation in activity
Exports expanding apace +14.8% y/y in Q1 2022
Modified domestic demand (excluding multinational sectors
and stocks) was +12.6% y/y in Q1 2022
Record total employment of 2.5m in Q1 2022 (+8% since
2019); unemployment rate at 4.8% in June
Irish consumers and SMEs are relatively well positioned
Household debt and business borrowings remain near multi-
year lows
Ratio of household debt to disposable income (98.5% in Q4
2021) is the lowest since the series began in 2003
Stock of Irish household deposits at €145bn as of May 2022,
+€34bn (+30%) since 2019
Irish businesses have strong balance sheets; core (non-
property) SME borrowings have reduced to c.€13bn from
c.€34bn in 2010
Irish CPI +9.1% y/y in June 2022
Dampening effect of higher interest rates on economic
activity and the easing of supply chain pressures expected to
see inflation moderate in 2023
House prices +14.4% y/y in May 2022; increase driven by the
continued mismatch between demand and supply
Mortgage demand underpinned by demographic
fundamentals and robust labour market
Bank of Ireland
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