2022 Interim Results - Debt Investor Presentation slide image

2022 Interim Results - Debt Investor Presentation

Irish economy resilient despite external pressures 6.2% 13.6% 2021a 4.9% Ireland¹ GDP (real annual growth) 9.2% 2022f - 5.1% 4.0% 2023f Unemployment (annual avg) Eurozone interest rate² and Irish inflation' outlook 2.4% -0.5% 8.3% 5.8% 1.1% 0.5% 2021 a 2022f 2023f CPI (annual avg) - 3 Month Euribor (annual avg) 1 Forecasts from Bank of Ireland Economic Research Unit (ERU), CPI = Consumer Price Index 2 Market pricing as at 25/7/22 Sources: Bloomberg; Central Bank of Ireland; CSO; EU Commission - - - - Bank of Ireland 2022 Interim Results - Debt Investor Presentation Irish economy well positioned to face global economic uncertainties Notwithstanding external headwinds, Ireland is forecast to be the EU's fastest-growing economy for a third successive year in 2022, despite a recent moderation in activity Exports expanding apace +14.8% y/y in Q1 2022 Modified domestic demand (excluding multinational sectors and stocks) was +12.6% y/y in Q1 2022 Record total employment of 2.5m in Q1 2022 (+8% since 2019); unemployment rate at 4.8% in June Irish consumers and SMEs are relatively well positioned Household debt and business borrowings remain near multi- year lows Ratio of household debt to disposable income (98.5% in Q4 2021) is the lowest since the series began in 2003 Stock of Irish household deposits at €145bn as of May 2022, +€34bn (+30%) since 2019 Irish businesses have strong balance sheets; core (non- property) SME borrowings have reduced to c.€13bn from c.€34bn in 2010 Irish CPI +9.1% y/y in June 2022 Dampening effect of higher interest rates on economic activity and the easing of supply chain pressures expected to see inflation moderate in 2023 House prices +14.4% y/y in May 2022; increase driven by the continued mismatch between demand and supply Mortgage demand underpinned by demographic fundamentals and robust labour market Bank of Ireland 5
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