Investor Presentaiton
NEW ZEALAND
BIG FALL IN NZ GDP IN FIRST HALF OF CALENDAR 2020,
RECOVERY UNDERWAY¹
$NZ billion (chain prices)
RBNZ EXPECTED TO MOVE TO NEGATIVE RATES²
$NZ billion
(%)
OCR
2.50
70
66
62
12
NZ GDP
Electronic card
transactions
2.00
10
Actual
■NAB Fcst, end qtr
Mkt pricing
1.50
8
1.00
0.50
58
6
0.00
54
4
-0.50
50
50
2
-1.00
Jun-18 Dec-18 Jun-19 Dec-19 Jun-20 Sep-18
Sep-19
Sep-20
Dec-18
Jun-19
Dec-19
Jun-20
Dec-20
Jun-21
Dec-21
DAIRY FARM VIABILITY
HOUSING MARKET BOUNCED BACK QUICKLY FROM IMPACT OF
EARLY COVID-19 RESTRICTIONS6
(Index)
(yoy%)
House prices
Dwelling sales transacted
7.19
3500
60
6.80
3000
Auckland
40
5.95
5.85
2500
2000
ہے
20
0
-20
1500
National ex
Auckland
-40
1000
-60
500
-80
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016 2017
2018
2019
20203
2021
0
-100
4
Mid Point of Fonterra milk price forecast
Sep
Sep
Sep Sep
Sep
Sep
Sep Sep Sep
Sep
5
Assessed average cost of production (per kg) *
12
14
16
18
20
12
14
16
18
20
(3)
Source: Refinitiv, Statistics NZ. GDP data to Q2 2020, Electronic card transaction all industry data to September 2020
Source: Refinitiv. NAB, OCR Market pricing from Refintiv Eikon Interest Rate Probability as at 3 November 2020
2020 figure includes Milk Price of $7.14 and Dividend of $0.05
(4)
Source: Fonterra (milk price)
Source: Dairy NZ (Forecast cost of production)
113
(6)
Source: Refinitiv, REINZ
National
Australia
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