Investor Presentaiton
Sustained inflation a possible risk
Expectations and Phillips curve have historically strong relationship with inflation
Inflation expectations picking up for consumers and
businesses
Wage pressure not prevalent currently but Philips curve has
held in Ireland in recent past
60
60
40
40
20
0
-20
Jan-14
Aug-14
Mar-15
Oct-15
May-16
Dec-16
Jul-17
Feb-18
Sep-18
Apr-19
Nov-19
Jun-20
Jan-21
2
Aug-21
0
-2
6%
4%
2%
do do do do
10%
8%
Nominal COE growth per head*
Consumer expectations (LHS)
Services expectations (LHS)
Gníomhaireacht Bainistíochta an Chisteáin Náisiúnta
National Treasury Management Agency
Industry expectations (LHS)
Headline inflation (RHS)
Source: Eurostat, CSO, Department of Finance
*Excludes agriculture incomes
0%
Covid
years are
outliers
-2%
-4%
2%
5%
8%
11% 14%
17% 20%
Unemployment Rate
22
22View entire presentation