Competing as a Strong and Independent Portuguese Bank
Macroeconomic scenarios
Implied Macroeconomic scenarios
Unit
2022 2023
2024 2025
Base Scenario
2022 2023 2024 2025
Favourable Scenario
2022 2023 2024 2025
Adverse Scenario
GDP
Real growth %
6.4
2.4
2.1
2.0
6.7
3.6
3.4
2.5
5.7
-3.7 -0.9
2.0
Domestic Demand
CPI
Real growth %
4.5
2.1
2.0
2.0
4.6
3.9
3.2
2.5
3.7
-3.4 -0.6
1.9
%
5.9
2.6
2.0
1.7
5.9
2.1
1.8
1.7
8.7
6.6
4.3
2.4
Unemployment
% labour force
5.8
5.7
5.8
5.8
5.7
5.4
5.3
5.1
6.3
9.4 13.7
11.6
Real Estate (Residential)
%
8.3
2.5
4.8
5.0
8.3
6.9
5.7
4.9
7.1
-8.5 -10.1
-1.3
Real Estate (Commercial) %
3.6
-0.2
1.3
1.5
3.6
3.1
2.6
2.1
3.3
-10.3 -12.2 -1.6
Euribor (annual average)
3-month
6-month
12-month
do do do
%
0.01
1.62 2.02
2.08
0.01 1.75
%
0.28
1.75
2.04
2.10
0.28
%
0.65
1.87 2.06
2.15
0.65
2.40 2.53
1.88 2.42 2.55
2.01 2.45 2.58
0.37 3.23 4.28 3.60
0.64 3.34 4.27 3.55
2.25 4.42 4.12 2.97
GDP
(Real growth; %)
Base Scenario
Favourable Scenario
Adverse Scenario
novobanco
6.4
6.7
5.7
3.6
3.4
2.4
2.1
2022
2023
-3.7
2024
-0.9
2.0
2.5
2.0
2025
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