Strategy 2030: Investments to Future-Proof SEB
33
Updated macro scenarios led to an increase of ECL
allowances in Q3
Three scenarios for ECL modelling
GDP growth assumptions Q3 2022 (Q2 2022)
Positive 15% (10%) probability
Negative -30% (30%) probability
.
.
Base 55% (60%) probability
2.7% 3.1%
2.2%
3.2% 2.5%
2.4% 2.6%
2.2% 1.7%
1.3%
0.9%
1.5% 1.1%
1.2% 1.2%
0.0%
2022
-1.0%
2023
-3.0%
2024
2022
2023
2024
2022
2023
2024
OECD
Sweden
The upside potential is limited and a faster
end to the Russia-Ukraine war or
unexpectedly strong adaptability in
Western Europe could be part of such a
scenario.
It is also conceivable that the strength of
the downturn in inflation over a longer
period is underestimated.
•
In the base scenario, 2023 global GDP
forecast has been revised downwards
due to a worsening energy crisis and rising
inflation forcing central banks to continue
hiking key rates.
Western Europe is expected to enter a
mild recession with near-zero growth in
2023 following a consumption-driven
slowdown starting during the fall of 2022.
The negative scenario assumes a
deepening energy crisis in Europe.
A widespread energy rationing in the
winter could lead to a much deeper
recession than the base scenario.
Probability-weighted ECL
allowances:
SEK 9.0bn
100% probability of
positive scenario:
-4% ECL allowances
100% probability of
negative scenario:
+6% ECL allowances
SEBView entire presentation