Investor Presentaiton
Credit metrics
Ausgrid has headroom against key metric thresholds. Moody's and S&P have also recently reaffirmed Ausgrid's
BBB/Baa1 credit ratings (both stable outlook) on 5 June and 29 June 2020 respectively
Leverage
Net debt/ RAB
Net debt/EBITDA2
-<90.0%
CFCR ³
Cash flow
EBITDA / interest
<1.4x
<1.2x
Legend
FY15-19 reg.
period
9.3x
3.6x
3.7x
1.7x
1.7x
1.6x
3.0x
79.1%
77.6%
75.9%
7.6x
7.4x
FY20-24 reg.
period
FY18
FY19
FY204
FY18
FY19
FY204
FY18
FY19
FY204
FY18
FY19
FY204
•
Bank covenant: <90.0%
Net debt/RAB gearing has decreased from 79.1% to 75.9% as a result of lower
debt funding of capex and debt repayments. Significant headroom maintained
above bank covenant level
FY20 net debt/EBITDA has increased as a result of lower FY20 revenues from
the 2019-24 AER Determination, the inclusion of remittal payments and
temporary impact of COVID-19 on electricity consumption volumes
Default: <1.2x Lock-up: <1.4x
CFCR has remained at 1.6-1.7x with headroom above bank covenant levels
FY20 EBITDA/interest has also reduced as a result of lower revenues from the
AER Determination, the inclusion of remittal payments and COVID-19
Transformation program has resulted in substantial savings since 2016 with
further savings to be delivered through this regulatory period
Credit rating metrics
FFO/debt is the primary credit metric assessed by S&P and Moody's, with historical outcomes disclosed in their reports outlined below
FFO / debt
FY18A
FY19A
FY20E
MOODY'S
8.1%
8.4%
7.0-7.1%
S&P Global
8.5%
8.6%
5.8-5.9%
Source: Moody's and S&P credit rating reports
Better
Ausgrid Together
MOODY'S
66 We regard Ausgrid's exposure to ongoing financial impacts
associated with the coronavirus outbreak as manageable,
given (1) the essential nature of the provided services
which underpins demand for electricity, (2) the low price-
elasticity of electricity demand, (3) the diverse customer
base, and (4) the supportive regulatory framework allowing
the group to recover revenue shortfalls in future periods.
5 June 2020
Notes: 1. Net debt presented at face value;
2. FY19 EBITDA normalised by adding back goodwill impairment;
3. Cash flows normalised by adding back reform costs;
S&P Global
66 We have affirmed the ratings on Ausgrid based on our
expectations that the company's FFO to debt will revert
to 7% by the year ending June 30, 2022. This recovery
is based on our expectations of upward adjustments
related to the under-recovery of revenues against
regulatory allowances from fiscals 2020 and 2021 and
Ausgrid achieving its forecast cost savings.
29 June 2020
4. FY20 numbers are unaudited and subject to revision. Audited accounts are expected to be available on 28 August 2020
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