Investor Presentaiton
3
Inflation data is in line with the scenario projected by the Central
Bank; July 2023 had the largest downward surprise inflation (-0.76)
since 2012.
Central Bank's projected inflation path and inflation
expectations (2)
(YoY, in %)
12
Estimated Surprise inflation component (2)
(Difference between MoM headline inflation and MoM
median inflation expectation for corresponding month, in %)
0.8
10
8
6
4
Inflation target band
Central Bank's
projected
I
0.6
Inflation path as of
I
June 2023
L
0.4
0.2
Inflation Expectation
by end-2023
6.25
0.0
-0.2
Monthly inflation
above market
expectation for
that month
-0.4
Monthly inflation
below market
-0.6
expectation for
that month
2
-0.8
-0.76
Jun.-20
Sep.-21
Dec.-22
Mar-24
Jun-25
Jul-21
Mar-22
Nov-22
Jul-23
(1) Source: Source: Central Bank of Uruguay. Quarterly forecasts of the baseline scenario as of June 2023. Median inflation expectations based on Central Bank's market survey as of July
2023.
(2) Source: Central Bank of Uruguay.
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