Guidelines for the Development of the Russian Financial Market
Bank of Russia
RUSSIAN MACRO UPDATE
The Central Bank of the Russian Federation
ECONOMIC FORECASTS (1)
Baseline scenario*: medium-term outlook for the Russian economy
19
2018
2019
2020
as % of previous year (unless indicated otherwise)
Urals price (annual average), US dollars per barrel
Inflation, % in December year-on-year
Inflation, yearly average
Gross domestic product
Final Consumption Expenditure
- households
Gross formation
-gross fixed capital formation
Exports
2017 (actual)
Baseline*
53
61
55
50
2.5
3.0-4.0
4.0
4.0
3.5
2.5-3.5
4.0
4.0
1.5
1.5-2.0
1.5-2.0
1.5-2.0
2.3
2.7-3.2
2.0-2.5
2.0-2.5
3.4
3.8-4.3
2.5-3.0
2.5-3.0
7.6
2.5-3.5
3.0-4.0
2.0-3.0
3.6
3.5-4.0
3.2-3.7
2.5-3.0
5.4
1.8-2.3
1.5-2.0
1.5-2.0
Imports
17.0
7.5-8.0
6.0-6.5
4.5-5.0
Money supply in national definition
10.5
8-10
9-12
8-12
Lending to non-financial organisations and households in rubles and foreign currency*
**
9.0
8-10
9-12
8-12
- lending to non-financial and financial organisations in rubles and foreign currency
8.1
7-9
8-11
7-10
12
11-13
11-14
11-14
- lending to households in rubles and foreign currency
*As presented in Monetary Policy Report No.5 (March 2018)
Source: Bank of RussiaView entire presentation