Georgia's Economic Outlook 2020
COST OF CREDIT RISK - COVID-19 IMPACT
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The Group created additional reserves for expected credit losses for the full economic cycle in the first quarter of 2020, primarily related to
deterioration of macro-economic environment and expected creditworthiness of borrowers as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic impact. The
following assumptions were used to estimate the amount of reserves:
Macroeconomic assumptions:
In the absence of the consensus forecasts, the Group used macro parameters based on Galt & Taggart Research
projections, which are consistent to the IMF expectations. We determined three scenarios (Baseline, Downside
and Upside) with macro parameters for a three-year horizon and assigned respective probabilities. The
weighted average of these scenario results were further considered in estimating expected credit losses (ECL).
Other assumptions:
Given the unprecedented nature of the COVID-19 pandemic and the uncertainties associated with it, we re-
considered the existing impairment model and applied management overlays to the methodology to reflect a
COVID-19 effect in ECL. In particular, granting three-month payment holidays to borrowers was not
automatically considered as SICR event (i.e. a trigger to transfer the exposures from Stage 1 to Stage 2). We
performed a more in depth analysis of the loan portfolio and identified pools of exposures (tourism and
hospitality sectors, among others, as well as some of the retail customers) that were most likely to suffer from
pandemic consequences in the short to medium term and, transferred these exposures to Stage 2;
Further, to estimate the ECL for certain borrowers, in the downside scenario we assigned them Probability of
Default (PD) of 1 and used only a stressed value of the real estate collateral as an estimate of Loss Given
Default (LGD). The ECL was calculated as a weighted average of the scenario results;
Baseline scenario (50% probability)
Macro parameter
Real GDP growth
CPI Inflation
2020 2021
-2.7% 5.5%
4.7%
2022
5.0%
3.5%
3.0%
3.3
2.95
2.9
GEL/US$ rate
Downside scenario (40% probability)
Macro parameter
Real GDP growth
CPI Inflation
GEL/US$ rate
2020
-7.0% 2.5%
7.0% 5.0%
3.8
3.3
2021
2022
3.5%
4.5%
3.2
Upside scenario (10% probability)
2020 2021 2022
2.1% 7.0% 6.0%
4.2%
3.0% 3.0%
GEL/US$ rate
3.05
2.8
2.8
Base on these assumptions, additional reserves of GEL 220.2mln was created in the first quarter of 2020. Given that we are operating in a rapidly changing
environment with a high level of uncertainty with regards to both the length and the severity of the COVID-19 impact, we are monitoring the new facts and
circumstances on a continuous basis and will be updating the market on any significant changes in our assessments in the coming months.
In order to reflect the effects of increased unemployment in the country in our ECL estimation, 12-month PD
rates were amended using management expert judgment, resulting in an increase of 12-month PD rate by 5ppts
in Baseline scenario and by 10ppts in Downside scenario. We also applied a 15% haircut in Baseline and 30%
haircut in Downside scenario to real estate collateral values and adjusted Cure and Recovery rates. Where
relevant, the Bank also used post model adjustments (credit rating override) for certain individually significant
borrowers to reflect SICR driven by COVID-19 impact.
Result:
Macro parameter
Real GDP growth
CPI InflationView entire presentation