Investor Presentaiton
October 12, 2021
CERAMIC: GBM ESTIMATES
GBM
Stock Information
Last Price
GBM Financial Estimates
P$54.0
Stock Returns
-
MXN Million
2020
2021e
2022e
2023e
2024e
2025e
No. Shares ('000s)
141,755
1M
20.0%
Revenues
10,798
12,005
12,557
13,418
14,061
13,992
YOY %
3.3%
11.2%
4.6%
6.9%
4.8%
-0.5%
Mkt Cap (MXN Million)
$7,655
3M
20.0%
Maj. Revenues
10,390
11,472
11,991
12,807
13,408
13,359
6M ADVT (MXN Million)
$1.0
6M
25.6%
Op. Profit
875
1,113
1,220
1,278
1,353
1,305
Net Debt (MXN Million)
$2,358
1 Yr
45.9%
Op. Mg.
8.1%
9.3%
9.7%
9.5%
9.6%
9.3%
Net Debt incl. IFRS 16
$3,742
3 Yrs
-5.8%
EBITDA
1,783
1,990
2,137
2,258
2,380
2,327
Float
24.0%
5 Yrs
31.7%
YOY %
11.2%
11.6%
7.4%
5.7%
5.4%
-2.2%
Max 52w
P$44.0
EBITDA Mg.
16.5%
16.6%
17.0%
16.8%
16.9%
16.6%
Min 52w
P$37.7
Maj. EBITDA
1,695
1,864
2,001
2,111
2,221
2,170
YOY %
11.8%
10.0%
7.4%
5.5%
5.2%
-2.3%
Valuation Ratios
EBITDA Mg.
16.3%
16.2%
16.7%
16.5%
16.6%
16.2%
2020
2021e
2022e
2023e
2024e
2025e
Net Profit
145
443
537
544
591
577
EV/EBITDA
5.2x
5.8x
5.6x
5.3x
4.8x
4.6x
YOY %
-61.2%
204.8%
21.2%
1.3%
8.7%
-2.4%
P/E
37.5x
17.3x
14.3x
14.1x
12.9x
13.3x
Net Mg.
1.3%
3.7%
4.3%
4.1%
4.2%
4.1%
P/S
0.5x
0.7x
0.6x
0.6x
0.6x
0.6x
P/BV
1.6x
2.1x
1.9x
1.8x
1.6x
1.5x
Free Cash Flow
-MXN Million
2020
2021e
2022e
2023e
2024e
2025e
Net Debt/EBITDA
2.0x
1.7x
1.7x
1.6x
1.3x
1.1x
(+) EBITDA
1,783
1,990
2,137
2,258
2,380
2,327
ROE
4.3%
12.1%
13.5%
12.5%
12.6%
11.5%
(-) Working Capital
-112
205
173
344
221
72
ROIC
7.7%
11.3%
11.3%
11.2%
12.0%
11.8%
(-) Cash Interest
201
198
200
234
246
220
Op. FCF Yield
15.3%
9.1%
11.1%
9.5%
11.5%
12.8%
(-) Cash Taxes
260
269
262
267
291
284
FCF Yield
15.1%
8.7%
1.3%
5.1%
10.6%
11.9%
(-) CAPEX (Maintenance)
602
623
649
685
745
771
Dividend Yield
0.0%
2.6%
2.6%
2.6%
3.0%
3.5%
(=) Op. FCF
832
695
853
727
879
981
(-) CAPEX (Growth)
6
30
753
335
70
70
(=) FCF
827
665
100
392
808
911
Maj. Dividend
0
199
198
199
228
266
Net Debt incl. IFRS 16
3,357
3,097
3,474
3,447
2,924
2,341
Maj. Net Debt incl. IFRS 16
3,357
3,097
3,474
3,447
2,924
2,341
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