Scotiabank ESG and Financial Performance Update
Canada: Consumer and Business Activity
GDP TRENDING UPWARD DESPITE STALLING IN
110
Index, 2019Q4 = 100
105
Jan 13, 2020 forecast
100
95
90
90
85
80
19Q4
20Q1
20231
BUSINESS CONFIDENCE CFIB BUSINESS
BAROMETER 2
80
index, 50 stronger
70
60
May 18, 2023 forecast
50
20Q2
20Q3
20Q4
21Q1
index, Feb 2020 levels = 100
21Q2
21Q3
KEY ECONOMIC INDICATORS 3
21Q4
22Q1
22Q2
22Q3
22Q4
23Q1
23Q2
23Q3
23Q4
24Q1
24Q2
24Q3
24Q4
Feb-20
Apr-20
Jun-20
Aug-20
100
160
× 6 8 8៩ ៩ ៩ ៖
Auto Sales
⚫ Mfg Shipments
Exports
Oct-20
Dec-20
Feb-21-
Apr-21-
Jun-21-
Aug-21-
Oct-21-
Dec-21-
Feb-22
Apr-22-
Jun-22
Housing Starts
Retail Sales
40
40
30
3-month moving
average
6-month moving average
Avg. 2011-present
Headline index
20
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
110
Feb. 2020 100
105
18
100
95
Aug-22
Oct-22-
Dec-22
Feb-23
Apr-23
Employment
Manufacturing PMI
90
85
8 1080
80
LABOUR MARKET RECOVERY 1
Feb-20
Apr-20
Jun-20
Aug-20
Oct-20
Dec-20
Feb-21
Apr-21
Jun-21
1 Sources: Scotiabank Economics, Statistics Canada; 2 Sources: Scotiabank Economics, CFIB; 3 Sources: Scotiabank Economics, Bloomberg
Canada Jobs
Aug-21
Oct-21
+41K Jobs in Apr. 2023
Dec-21
Feb-22
Apr-22
Jun-22
Aug-22
Oct-22
Dec-22
Feb-23
Apr-23
70
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