Russian Financial Sector Update
Bank of Russia
RUSSIAN MACRO UPDATE
The Central Bank of the Russian Federation
21
21
INFLATION EXPECTATIONS
Inflation expectations are at historical lows but their decline has yet to become sustainable and consistent
Expectations
horizon
Inflation expectations (absolute value), %
I. 2016 II.2016 III.2016 IV.2016 I.2017 II.2017 III.2017 IV.2017 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18
Households
FOM
Next 12 months
14.7
14.2
14.2
12,4
11.2
10.3
9.6
8.7
8.9
8.4
8.5
7.8
8.6
9.8
9.7
FOM (Bank of Russia
calculations)
Next 12 months
7.4
6.7
5.9
5.1
4.0
4.0
2.8
2.4
2.1
2.1
2.2
2.2
2.2
2.4
Professional analysts
Bloomberg
2018
Interfax
2018
Reuters
2018
4.0
4.0
4,0
4.0
4.2
4.1
4.1
3.9
4.1
4.0
4.1
33
3.8
3.8
800 00
3.8
3.8
3.8
m m m
3.6
3.7
608
343
3.6
3.7
3.8
4.0
3.8
3.8
3.6
3.8
3.7
3.5
Financial markets
OFZ IN (option not
Next 5 years
6.9
6.0
5.3
5.4
4.9
4.7
4.3
4.1
4.1
4.0
3.9
4.2
43
223
4.5
subtracted)
Bond market
Next quarter
12.0
6.9
7.2
6.6
5.2
4.4
4.5
Interbank market
Next quarter
9.9
5.3
5.4
5.6
4.6
3.7
3.4
54
3.1
2.7
2.3
1.9
Inflation expectations (balanced index*)
Households
FOM
Next 12 months
84
78
82
80
79
80
FOM
Next month
72
68
70
76
68
68
23
82
78
78
75
74
76
76
79
73
73
69
61
62
63
63
71
Предприятия
REB
Next 3 months
14
38
36
46
22
20
14
52
22
24
32
0
Bank of Russia
Next 3 months
13.6
12.2
11.3
9.4
7.4
9.5
7.2
7.2
6.4
6.8
8.5
10.0
10.4
11.4
Retail prices (Rosstat) Next quarter
Tariffs (Rosstat)
32
29
28
27
27
24
24
24
24
Next quarter
5
5
0
0
4
3
0
20
22
Change against 3 previous months:
- Inflation expectations become better (more than 1 standard deviation)
- Inflation expectations become better (less than 1 standard deviation)
- Inflation expectations unchanged (±0,2 standard deviations)
- Inflation expectations become worse (less than 1 standard deviation)
- Inflation expectations become worse (more than 1 standard deviation)
*Balanced index is the difference between the shares of those who expect prices to rise and to fall
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