Irish Sovereign Green Bonds Update
Philips curve relationship has held in the past in Ireland
but we are some way off full employment
Inflation subdued in Ireland for close to a
decade despite strong growth
Full employment has led to inflation in past
but a long way from there currently
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
-1.0
-2.0
-3.0
-4.0
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
OTOZ
2011
TTOZ
2012
2013
2014
STOZ
FLOC
ZIOZ
HICP Ireland
Gníomhaireacht Bainistíochta an Chisteáin Náisiúnta
National Treasury Management Agency
2015
Average nom. MDD
growth in 2014-19: 6%
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
HICP Euro Area
Nominal COE growth per head*
12.0%
10.0%
8.0%
6.0%
R2 = 0.8
2020
4.0%
outlier
2.0%
0.0%
-2.0%
-4.0%
2.0%
5.0%
8.0% 11.0% 14.0% 17.0% 20.0%
Unemployment Rate
Source: CSO, NTMA analysis;
*Non-Agriculture employment/wage data on yearly basis (1999-2020)
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