Investor Presentaiton
Independent Review of
RBD Is Bangladesh Rolling Towards A Debt Stress?
Bangladesh's Development
Scenario Two: Simulation Using IMF/World Bank Debt Sustainability Framework
Present Value of External Debt-GDP Ratio (%)
Present Value of External Debt-Revenue Ratio
40
40
35
30
25
20
20
13.98
15
10
10
5
0
FY2017
11.89
250
(%)
1.28% rise
22.68% rise
0.81% rise
200
134.16
23.4% rise
10.53% rise
150
0.79% rise
89.22
100
9,75
.0.51% rise
50
88.08
57.41
9.24
0
FY2020
FY2017
FY2020
External Debt Service-Revenue Ratio (%)
3.73% rise
1.95% rise
9.87
3.78% rise
2.6%
rise
5.32
FY2020
20
i.
ii.
Shocks (Compared to Baseline
Scenario)
Annual USD 5 bln financial flow
5% exchange rate depreciation
iii. 5% rise in nominal interest rate
18
16
14
11.9
12
10
8
6
iv. Tk. 50,000 crore shortfall in revenue
collection
4
5.01
2
0
CPD (2017): State of the Bangladesh Economy in FY2017 (First Reading) FY2017View entire presentation