OCI Ramp-Up of Methanol Capacity
OCI
☐
2.0
6.0
Demand trend growth ~>3 mtpa
4.0
10 year historical CAGR
Structural Supply-Demand Imbalance Expected to Support Fertilizer Prices
Global urea capacity additions (ex-China) below demand growth
million mtpa
10.0
8.0
50% of estimated additional
capacity 2020-2022 to occur in Iran,
India and Nigeria
■ Improved trajectory for nitrogen prices mainly due to:
О
Large capacity additions of 2015 - 2018 being absorbed
O
Lower Chinese exports
0.0
350
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
330
No further new capacity start-ups in the remainder of 2019
310
New planned capacities prone to delays due to availability of
feedstock, construction delays and other factors
290
Chinese exports at low levels, but will be required in tightening market
270
China Urea Exports (mtpa)
250
13.6 13.7
YTD 2019 avg monthly
exports annualized
230
210
8.9
8.3
7.0
6.9
190
5.3
4.4
44
4.7
3.4
3.6
4.0
170
2.5
1.6 1.4
150
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Source: Company information and estimates, CRU, Fertecon, Integer, CFMW, company reports
Jan-17
Mar-17
May-17
Jul-17
Sep-17
Nov-17
○ Demand from importing regions
Summer Season Fertilizer Prices More resilient than in Previous Years
Jan-18
Mar-18
May-18
Egypt Granular Urea Spot, $/t
Jul-18
Sep-18
Nov-18
Jan-19
Mar-19
May-19
Jul-19
15View entire presentation