Investor Presentaiton
IRENIC
0.0%
(1.0%)
(2.0%)
(3.0%)
(4.0%)
(5.0%)
(6.0%)
(7.0%)
(8.0%)
(1.0%)
Fox business is deeply interwoven with the declining cable bundle
Despite strong execution, Fox is subject to the inexorable decline in the pay television ecosystem
"But of course, we recognize that the trends in the paid subscriber universe has an impact on our business. As you know, we are dependent on our
traditional and digital distribution partners and their business plans for our inclusion in their pay television retail offerings. And while I'm not going to
predict where a normalized pay TV subscriber base ends up in the near to medium-term, I know that this ecosystem will still be the largest component of
our revenues for some time." - Lachlan Murdoch, Fox Corporation CEO, Fox Q2 FY2020 Earnings Call (05 2020 February)
Fox Subscribers are Declining
Industry Pay-TV Cord Cutting Continues Apace
Q4 2019 (JUN)
Q1 2020 (SEP)
(4.1%)
Q2 2020 (DEC)
(6.0%)
Q3 2020 (MAR)
(5.2%)
Q4 2020 (JUN)
(6.5%)
Q1 2021 (SEP)
(6.0%)
Q2 2021 (DEC)
Q3 2021 (MAR)
(5.2%)
(4.5%)
Q4 2021 (JUN)
(4.4%)
Q1 2022 (SEP)
(4.5%)
Q2 2022 (DEC)
(4.8%)
Q3 2022 (MAR)
Q4 2022 (JUN)
(4.8%)
(5.8%)
Q1 2023 (SEP)
(7.0%)
(2.0%)
(4.0%)
(6.0%)
(8.0%)
(10.0%)
(12.0%)
Q1 2013
Q2 2013
Q3 2013
Q4 2013
Q1 2014
Q2 2014
Q3 2014
Q4 2014
Q1 2015
0.0%
-0.2%
-0.2%
-0.2%
-0.2%
-0.1%
-0.1%
-0.2%
-0.2%
-0.5%
Source: Fox Corporation earnings calls
Source: Moffett Nathanson Research
"In our opinion, the 200bp increase in the pace of cord cutting seen over the last year is likely to accelerate next year due to cable companies trying to
optimize their businesses for price in the absence of unit growth, which may end up driving more price increases in video. Fox is also among the most
exposed to legacy TV advertising (~40% of revenues) across legacy media peers and while the impact of macro should be offset to some extent by its
news and sports exposure (2/3rd of ad revenue), Fox is unlikely to be immune to these pressures."
- Barclays (01 November 2022)
Q2 2015
Q3 2015
Q4 2015
Q1 2016
Q2 2016
Q3 2016
-0.8%
-1.2%
-1.3%
-1.4%
-1.5%
-1.7%
Q4 2016
-2.1%
Q1 2017
-2.8%
Q2 2017
-3.0%
Q3 2017
-3.3%
Q4 2017
-3.4%
Q1 2018
-3.4%
Q2 2018
-3.4%
Q3 2018
-3.7%
Q4 2018
-4.2%
Q1 2019
-4.9%
Q2 2019
-5.7%
Q3 2019
-6.5%
Q4 2019
-7.2%
Q1 2020
-7.9%
Q2 2020
-8.4%
Q3 2020
-8.5%
Q4 2020
-8.7%
Q1 2021
-9.0%
Q2 2021
-8.8%
Q3 2021
-8.8%
Q4 2021
-8.9%
Q1 2022
-9.0%
Q2 2022
-9.7%
PAGE 32View entire presentation