Q4 2023 Financial Update

Credit portfolio and asset quality Macroeconomic scenarios in Q4 Three scenarios for ECL modelling GDP growth assumptions Q4 2023 (Q3 2023) Positive scenario: 15% probability (20%) 38 • OECD Sweden Base scenario: 65% probability (60%) 2.5% 2.4% 3.0% 2.5% 3.0% 1.1% 1.2% 2.5% 2.3%.7% 2.0% -0.4% 2024 2025 2026 2024 2025 2026 The potential for more favorable economic performance in the positive scenario lies mainly in inflation falling faster than the current consensus and our main forecast. The base scenario maintains the assumption that a deep economic slump can be avoided although there is a clear slowdown in OECD countries. Central banks are expected to refrain from new rate hikes and instead increase their preparedness for monetary easing in 2024, despite underlying inflation remaining above target remaining Negative scenario: 20% probability (20%) 1.8% 2.5% -1.8%2.4% -0.7% -0.2% 2024 2025 2026 • The negative scenario reflects the downside risk from the monetary policy, especially considering the lengthy time lag before rate hikes have an impact on the economy, and a continued increase in geopolitical risks. Probability-weighted ECL allowances: SEK 7.9bn 100% probability of positive scenario: -4% ECL allowances 100% probability of negative scenario: +6% ECL allowances SEB

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