Climate and Catastrophe Risk Assessment - Asia
Federal Ministry
Met Office
cass
for the Environment, Nature Conservation
and Nuclear Safety
Hazard Analysis
Saidpur Rangpur
Jamalpu
Sylhet
Mymensingh
Nawabganj
Rajshahi
dangail
Pabna
Dhaka Narayanganj
Comilla
dessore
Khulna
Barisal
Chittagong
Barguna
20
25
Saidpur Rangpur
Nawabganj
Rajshahi
Jamalpur
Sylhet
Mymensingh
Jangail
Pabna
Dhaka
Narayanganj
Comilla
cessore
Khulna
Barisal
Barguna
part of the Oasis Platform for Climate and Catastrophe Risk Assessment -
Asia, a project funded by the International Climate Initiative (IKI)
Chittagong
To aggregate information from all ensembles of all named storms, we
pool each of the 1000 simulations into a grand ensemble for gust speed
hazard analysis.
The 95th and 99th percentiles represent the maximum gust speeds
expected from a 1-in-20 and 1-in-100 event respectively. These credible
intervals are based on the posterior model distribution derived from all 12
named tropical cyclones, conditional on a tropical cyclone making landfall
in Bangladesh. The 20 - 60 m/s gust speed range roughly corresponds
to a range of 39 – 117 kts, equivalent to the cyclonic to super cyclonic
storm classification used in Bangladesh.
Based on historical cases, the provinces of Chittagong, Barisal and
Khulna are most exposed of high wind speed associated with tropical
cyclone gusts, whilst Sylhet and Rajshani are least exposed. The cities of
Key Point (1) ►Chittagong and Cox's Bazar are particularly at risk of maximum tropical
cyclone wind speeds exceeding 45 m/s (87 kts) and 60 m/s (116 kts)
respectively, in 5% of tropical cyclones making landfall. Maximum gust
speeds in Dhaka are likely to reach 35 m/s (68 kts) in 1% of events, and
25 m/s (48 kts) in 5% of events.
60
100 km
100 km
Cox's Bazar
Coxia Bazar
95th percentile
(1-in-20)
99th percentile
(1-in-100)
www.metoffice.gov.uk
40
45
50
Gust Speed (m/s)
11
At
CC
BYView entire presentation