Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co Investment Banking
Distributable Cash Flow Accretion / (Dilution)
Pre Unitholder Tax(1,2) | AM & AMGP I AR Downside Volumes Case
Exchange Ratio
AM Accretion / (Dilution) - %
At 1.797x Exchange Ratio
Status Quo AM:
PF AMGP22)
PF AMGP at 1
$ Acc / (Dil):
$ Acc / (Dil):
1.821x
1.846x
1.870x
(1)
1.884x
(9.3%)
2H 2018E
$1.01
$0.91
$0.98
($0.09)
($0.03)
2H 2018E
(2.5%)
(2.1%)
(1.7%)
1.6%
(1.8%)
(5.1%)
2019E
$2.40
$2.28
$2.44
($0.12)
$0.04
Accretion / (Dilution) Analysis at Various XRs
2020E
2019E
2.1%
2.5%
(2)
-1.797 XR1.67% XR
3.0%
7.4%
0.3%
2020E
$3.02
$3.03
$3.25
$0.01
$0.22
7.9%
1.3%
8.9%
2021E
$3.33
$3.37
$3.61
$0.04
$0.28
2021E
9.9%
(0.6%)
(7.1%)
2022E
$3.76
$3.49
$3.74
($0.27)
($0.02)
2022E
(0.6%)
2.4%
AMGP Accretion / (Dilution) - %
At 1.0x AM Coverage
44.7%
Status Quo AM:
Pro Forma AMGP:
$ Acc / (Dil):
Exchange Ratio
1.821x
1.846x
1.870x
2H 2018E
1.884x
CONFIDENTIAL DRAFT
SUBJECT TO CHANGE
$0.38
$0.54
$0.17
44.7%
32.8%
AM Proposal Accretion / (Dilution) Analysis at Various XRs
2H 2018E
39.7%
2019E
$1.02
$1.36
$0.34
Source: Management projections and FactSet as of 8/30/2018.
(1) Pre Unitholder Tax 1.797x represents implied XR at 1.614x equity XR and cash consideration of $3.415 / unit. Cash assumed to be used to purchase additional secondary shares.
(2) Post - Unitholder Tax 1.679x represents implied XR at 1.61-6x equity XR; cash used to pay taxes, with any excess cash assumed to be used to purchase additional secondary shares.
2019E
32.8%
31.6%
30.4%
29.3%
All-In XR
Gross Cash Consideration
Taxes Payable
Net Cash Consideration
XR Equity Component
Secondary Shares Purchased
Net After-Tax XR
28.2%
24.1%
2020E
$1.46
$1.81
$0.35
2020E
24.1%
23.1%
22.0%
21.0%
20.6%
20.0%
2021E
$1.67
$2.01
$0.34
2021E
20.6%
19.5%
18.5%
17.5%
16.5%
TUDORPICKERING
HOLT&COI:
ENERGY INVESTMENTS
MERCHANT BANKING
5.9%
202 2E
$1.96
$2.08
$0.12
2022E
5.9%
1.797x
$3.415
(52.29)
$1.13
1.614x
0.065
1.679x
5.5%
5.0%
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