Scotiabank Risk Overview
Economic Outlook in Core Markets
REAL GDP (ANNUAL % CHANGE)
Forecast 1, 2
Country
2010-20
Average
2021 2022E3
2023
2024
Full
Full
Q1F
Q2F
Q3F Q4F
Q1F
Q2F
Q3F Q4F
Year
Year
Canada
1.6
5.0
3.6
2.2
1.3
0.5
0.4
1.1
0.7
1.4
2.0
2.3
1.6
U.S.
1.8
5.9
2.1
1.7
17
1.7
0.9
0.5
1.2
0.5
1.0
1.4
1.6
1.1
Mexico
1.7
4.7
3.0
1.0
0.6
0.9
0.7
0.8
2.5
1.4
2.2
1.6
1.9
Chile
2.5
11.7
2.7
0.0
(3.0)
(2.5)
(1.3)
(1.7)
100
0.1
3.5
3.2
4.4
2.8
Peru
3.1
13.3
2.7
1.1
2.8
1.7
2.6
2.1
2.9
2.4
2.4
2.0
2.4
Colombia
2.7
11.0
7.5
1.7
1.7
17
1.7
13
1.1
1.5
2.6
2.7
2.4
2.4
2.5
PAC Average
2.5
10.2
4.0
1.0
0.5
0.4
0.8
0.7
2.0
2.5
2.5
2.6
2.4
1 Forecasts for Canada and U.S. as of the February 6, 2023 Scotiabank Economics Global Forecast Tables
2 Forecasts for PAC countries as of the February 10, 2023 Scotiabank Economics Latam Weekly
3 The annual GDP 2022 data for Colombia and Peru are actuals as of February 15, 2023; the remaining countries are estimates
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