Investor Presentaiton
200
150
100
50
0
Dec-20
Feb-21
Apr-21
Jun-21
Aug-21
Oct-21
House price index
Dec-21
Feb-22
Apr-22
Provision and loan impairment expense
Prudent economic forecasts reflective of a changing environment
Provision model assumptions
> The base case scenario reflects BOQ's forward looking economic
assumptions and is supported by RBA forecasts where available
> Downside scenario represents the risk of stagflation effects, with
further rises in interest rates, no GDP growth and rising
unemployment
> Downside and Severe scenario weights have reduced since 2021,
representing a less volatile economic outlook with COVID-19 risks
subsiding, although still reflecting the uncertainty posed by the
current economic environment
GDP (YoY growth %)
Jun-22
Aug-22
Oct-22
Dec-22
Feb-23
Apr-23
Jun-23
Aug-23
Oct-23
Dec-23
Feb-24
Apr-24
Jun-24
Aug-24
Oct-24
Dec-24
Scenario weights
BANK OF QUEENSLAND LIMITED 2022 Full Year Results Presentation
(1) Economic forecasts as at July 2022, based on RBA and market consensus at that time and prepared for the purposes of collective provision updates. The peak interest rate at
that time was 3.1%
8.0%
6.0%
4.0%
2.0%
0.0%
Dec-20
Feb-21
Apr-21
Jun-21
Aug-21
Weighting
Unemployment (%)
Oct-21
Dec-21
Feb-22
Apr-22
Jun-22
Aug-22
Oct-22
Economic forecasts (calendar year) (%) 1
Base
Downside
2022
2023
2024
2022
2023
2024
3.25
1.75
1.75
0.25
0.00
0.75
Unemployment rate (%)
3.25
3.50
4.00
5.00
7.00
7.50
Residential Property Prices
-6.00
-15.00
-20.00
-16.00
-29.00
-32.00
(cumulative % change)
Commercial Property Prices
-4.00
-9.00
-12.00
-13.00
-22.00
-26.50
(cumulative % change)
Cash Rate (%)
2.90
2.95
2.90
3.50
3.75
3.50
Upside
2022 2021 2022
5%
5%
Base
Downside
2021
2022
2021
Severe
2022 2021
50% 43% 30% 30% 15% 22%
Dec-22
Feb-23
Apr-23
Jun-23
Aug-23
Oct-23
Dec-23
Feb-24
Apr-24
Jun-24
Aug-24
63
Oct-24
Dec-24
BOQ GROUPView entire presentation