Japan in the World
Prolonged US-China Conflict and China's Dual
Circulation Strategy
NOMURA
China's current balance and its breakdown
Goods trade balance
Service balance
RMB bn
1200
Income balance
-Current balance
900
600
300
0
-300
-600
-900
10 11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19 20 CY
Source: Haver Analytics material
Another thing that must be anticipated with the
birth of the Biden administration is the possibility
of change in US policies regarding China.
However, there is little chance of a significant
shift in economic security policies
Assuming that the US will not change its tough
stance, China is launching a “Dual Circulation
Strategy" promoting domestic development and
production of advanced technologies and high-
tech products
The Dual Circulation Strategy simultaneously
seeks to resolve China's reliance on foreign
demand. It seems that there is now a need for
caution regarding the risk that over the long term,
China's massive trade and current surpluses will
shrink, along with the money glut that China has
provided to the world
00
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