Analysis of Global Power Market
Analysis of China's Power Operation Market
Power Peak Demand and Reserve
Power peak demand in China increased from 776.4 GW in 2013 to 994.5 GW in 2018, with a CAGR of 5.1%.
Reserve margin, calculated using power reserve divided by power peak demand, is exhibiting an upward trend during 2013 to 2015
and then declined gradually to 32.4% in 2018. Such trend demonstrates an overcapacity situation faced by China power operation
industry during 2013 to 2015, especially for thermal power. In 2016, central government including NDRC and NEA issued a series
of policies (e.g. 《关于促进我国煤电有序发展的通知》《关于进一步规范电力项目开工建设秩序的通知》《关于进一步调控煤电规划
») to restrict the power plant construction, with reserve margin declining since then. Nevertheless, compared with that of
those developed regions such as North America, reserve margin in China is considered to be high (versus. reserve margin of 15%
as set by North American Electric Reliability Corporation) and therefore it is expected to further decrease in future.
Power Peak Demand and Reserve, China, 2013-2018
GW
2,000
%
43.6
45.0
40.8
37.1
40.0
33.6
1,500
27.4
32.4
35.0
30.0
994.5
25.0
928.8
1,000
861.7
776.4
797.3
799.8
20.0
15.0
500
10.0
5.0
0
0.0
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
Reserve Margin
Power Peak Demand
FROST
&
SULLIVAN
Source: Frost & Sullivan
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